AS Eupen 1-2 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Union St. Gilloise (67%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as AS Eupen face Union St. Gilloise.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AS Eupen and Union St. Gilloise meet at Kehrwegstadion in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 19). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
AS Eupen's record over their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, AS Eupen have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Union St. Gilloise have collected 2.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Union St. Gilloise's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.10 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Union St. Gilloise are the stronger side — 2.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.80 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from AS Eupen's last 10 home games and Union St. Gilloise's last 10 away games) — AS Eupen have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Union St. Gilloise in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head sample leans to Union St. Gilloise, who have 4 wins from 5 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draw.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 20 Oct 2023, ended AS Eupen 1–4 Union St. Gilloise — a Union St. Gilloise win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Union St. Gilloise have won 4 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
AS Eupen — key trading statistics (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Union St. Gilloise — key trading statistics (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — AS Eupen 62% and Union St. Gilloise 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Eupen 60% | Union St. Gilloise 67%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: AS Eupen surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Union St. Gilloise have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Eupen 1.11 xG and Union St. Gilloise 2.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Eupen attack 0.850 / defence 1.463 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.397 / defence 0.818. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.266. Union St. Gilloise have an above-average attack rating of 1.397, which lifts their away xG to 2.59. AS Eupen's defence rating of 1.463 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Union St. Gilloise's projected output up. Data: built from AS Eupen's last 52 games and Union St. Gilloise's last 52.
Result probabilities: AS Eupen 12% | Draw 20% | Union St. Gilloise 67%. Fair-value odds: AS Eupen 8.01 | Draw 4.98 | Union St. Gilloise 1.48. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (67%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.70. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.70 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.11 / 2.59) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union St. Gilloise are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (AS Eupen's last 10 home games and Union St. Gilloise's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: AS Eupen 80% (last 10 home games) | Union St. Gilloise 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Eupen vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 19 | Venue: Kehrwegstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 23 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Eupen 12% | Draw 20% | Union St. Gilloise 67% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% (Under 29%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG AS Eupen 1.11 / Union St. Gilloise 2.59 • Poisson strength factors: AS Eupen attack 0.850 / def 1.463 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.397 / def 0.818 | league avg home 1.596 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
AS Eupen xG
Expected Goals
2.59
Union St. Gilloise xG
64%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AS Eupen vs Union St. Gilloise FAQs
What time does AS Eupen vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
AS Eupen vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 23 December 2023 at Kehrwegstadion.
What was the final score in AS Eupen vs Union St. Gilloise?
AS Eupen 1 - 2 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is AS Eupen vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Kehrwegstadion.
What competition is AS Eupen vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
AS Eupen vs Union St. Gilloise is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 19) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win AS Eupen vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives AS Eupen a 12% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 67% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Eupen vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both AS Eupen and Union St. Gilloise will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will AS Eupen vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from AS Eupen's attack rating (0.85) and Union St. Gilloise's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Union St. Gilloise's attack (1.40x) against AS Eupen's defence (1.46x) — and the away total comes out at 2.59.
These ratings are built from AS Eupen's last 52 games and Union St. Gilloise's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.2%. Close behind: 0-2 (8.3%), 1-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
12%
8.01
20%
4.98
67%
1.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
8.3%
Away win
1 – 3
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
AS Eupen xG
Total xG
3.70
2.59
Union St. Gilloise xG
8.01
12%
Home win
4.98
20%
Draw
1.48
67%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
8%
13.30
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
1%
106.60
22%
4.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 6.4 | 8.3 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 2.4 |
| 1 | 2.7 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.7 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AS Eupen vs Union St. Gilloise Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Eupen vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are AS Eupen and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for AS Eupen and 2.59 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 3.70.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Eupen vs Union St. Gilloise?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AS Eupen come into this having played 52 games, going 11W 10D 31L for 0.83 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Union St. Gilloise sit at 2.25 PPG from 52 outings (36W 9D 7L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Union St. Gilloise carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.42 PPG clear of AS Eupen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
AS Eupen's home form reads 5W 6D 14L across their last 25 home games, a 0.84 PPG return.
Away from home, Union St. Gilloise have taken 2.28 points per game from their last 25 away games (17W 6D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AS Eupen are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 2.13 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AS Eupen have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Union St. Gilloise in 67%.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Eupen
Blended
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
AS Eupen (Home) vs Union St. Gilloise (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AS Eupen
Blended
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
❓ AS Eupen vs Union St. Gilloise Form FAQs
What form are AS Eupen and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
AS Eupen have gone 11W 10D 31L in their last 52 games (0.83 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 36W 9D 7L in their last 52 (2.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Eupen at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Eupen at home: 0.84 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 2.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between AS Eupen and Union St. Gilloise, the earliest from October 2021. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 23 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Union St. Gilloise have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union St. Gilloise won Union St. Gilloise 4-1 AS Eupen on 20 Oct 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Eupen have gone 0W 0D 3L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Union St. Gilloise — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
AS Eupen
1
Draws
5
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ AS Eupen vs Union St. Gilloise H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and Union St. Gilloise?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, AS Eupen have won 0, Union St. Gilloise have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did AS Eupen and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 December 2023: AS Eupen 1-2 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between AS Eupen and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 68% for AS Eupen, 76% for Union St. Gilloise — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for AS Eupen and 64% for Union St. Gilloise. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Eupen home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AS Eupen vs Union St. Gilloise Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AS Eupen and Union St. Gilloise matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of AS Eupen's games and 76% of Union St. Gilloise's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are AS Eupen and Union St. Gilloise matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of AS Eupen's matches and 64% of Union St. Gilloise's.
Do AS Eupen and Union St. Gilloise matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of AS Eupen's recent matches and 88% of Union St. Gilloise's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union St. Gilloise edge out AS Eupen 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat AS Eupen 1-2 at Kehrwegstadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Eupen 1.11 xG and Union St. Gilloise 2.59 xG, a combined 3.70. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Eupen attack 0.85 / defence 1.46 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.40 / defence 0.82, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Eupen 12% | Draw 20% | Union St. Gilloise 67%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 67%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Eupen 60%, Union St. Gilloise 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Eupen's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 0.83. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.