AS Eupen 2-1 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this AS Eupen vs St. Truiden fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion am Kehrweg plays host to AS Eupen versus St. Truiden in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Saturday 14 August 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
AS Eupen (all games): 1W 2D 0L across 3 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.67 PPG. Last five: D D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. AS Eupen have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
St. Truiden have collected 1.33 PPG across 3 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 1W 1D 1L. Last five: W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. St. Truiden have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.67 for AS Eupen, 1.33 for St. Truiden — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — AS Eupen have seen both teams score in 100% of their games, St. Truiden in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
AS Eupen — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
St. Truiden — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — AS Eupen 100% and St. Truiden 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (AS Eupen 67% | St. Truiden 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Eupen 0.87 xG and St. Truiden 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Eupen attack 0.961 / defence 1.091 | St. Truiden attack 0.687 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 0.883 / away 1.552. Data: 3 AS Eupen games / 3 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Eupen 24% | Draw 38% | St. Truiden 39%. Fair-value odds: AS Eupen 4.17 | Draw 2.63 | St. Truiden 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 38% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Both sides post BTTS form rates above 65% but Poisson BTTS probability is only 44% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.
On the Poisson output, St. Truiden are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 38% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on St. Truiden if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: AS Eupen 100% | St. Truiden 67% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Eupen vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadion am Kehrweg • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Eupen 24% | Draw 38% | St. Truiden 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 44% | xG AS Eupen 0.87 / St. Truiden 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: AS Eupen attack 0.961 / def 1.091 | St. Truiden attack 0.687 / def 1.024 | league avg home 0.883 / away 1.552 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
AS Eupen xG
Expected Goals
1.16
St. Truiden xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Eupen vs St. Truiden kick off?
AS Eupen vs St. Truiden kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at Stadion am Kehrweg.
What was the final score in AS Eupen vs St. Truiden?
AS Eupen 2 - 1 St. Truiden.
Where is AS Eupen vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Stadion am Kehrweg.
What competition is AS Eupen vs St. Truiden part of?
AS Eupen vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win AS Eupen vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives AS Eupen a 24% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 39% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Eupen vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both AS Eupen and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will AS Eupen vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and St. Truiden?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AS Eupen and St. Truiden in?
AS Eupen (all comps): 1W-2D-0L in 3 | 1.67 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-D-W. St. Truiden (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.33 | L5 W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from AS Eupen's attack rating (0.96) and St. Truiden's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 0.87 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — St. Truiden's attack (0.69x) against AS Eupen's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
24%
4.24
38%
2.67
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
AS Eupen xG
Total xG
2.03
1.16
St. Truiden xG
4.24
24%
Home win
2.67
38%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
7%
13.57
16%
6.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 15.2 | 8.9 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.2 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Eupen vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are AS Eupen and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for AS Eupen and 1.16 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Eupen vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AS Eupen come into this having played 3 games, going 1W 2D 0L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W. It's still early in the season for AS Eupen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, St. Truiden sit at 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L), a run that reads W-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for St. Truiden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for AS Eupen against 1.33 for St. Truiden. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AS Eupen are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.00 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AS Eupen have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; St. Truiden in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Eupen
Early Season
St. Truiden
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Eupen and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
AS Eupen have gone 1W 2D 0L in their last 3 games (1.67 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have AS Eupen or St. Truiden been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Eupen have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, St. Truiden in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Eupen have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against St. Truiden — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
AS Eupen
1
Draws
2
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and St. Truiden?
From 6 meetings on record, AS Eupen have won 3, St. Truiden have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AS Eupen and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2024, when AS Eupen 1-0 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between AS Eupen and St. Truiden?
AS Eupen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
St. Truiden see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for AS Eupen, 67% for St. Truiden — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for AS Eupen and 67% for St. Truiden. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: St. Truiden in 33%; St. Truiden in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Eupen home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Eupen play St. Truiden?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of AS Eupen's games and 67% of St. Truiden's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AS Eupen vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of AS Eupen's matches and 67% of St. Truiden's.
Do AS Eupen and St. Truiden tend to score early?
AS Eupen have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AS Eupen defy the odds to beat St. Truiden 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Eupen beat St. Truiden 2-1 at Stadion am Kehrweg, Regular Season - 4, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Eupen 0.87 xG and St. Truiden 1.16 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. AS Eupen beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Eupen attack 0.96 / defence 1.09 against St. Truiden attack 0.69 / defence 1.02, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Eupen 24% | Draw 38% | St. Truiden 39%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a AS Eupen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Eupen 67%, St. Truiden 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 83%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Eupen's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
St. Truiden's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Eupen 1.67 PPG, St. Truiden 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AS Eupen win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.