Antwerp 2-0 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antwerp at 51%, yet in-form Union St. Gilloise provide a compelling counter-argument — this Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Union St. Gilloise travel to Bosuilstadion to take on Antwerp in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 7). The game is scheduled for Sunday 15 September 2024 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Antwerp stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Antwerp have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Union St. Gilloise — last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Union St. Gilloise's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Union St. Gilloise — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Antwerp, 2 for Union St. Gilloise and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 28 Apr 2024, ended Antwerp 1–4 Union St. Gilloise — a Union St. Gilloise win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Antwerp trading profile (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Union St. Gilloise trading profile (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antwerp 46% versus Union St. Gilloise 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antwerp 52% | Union St. Gilloise 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antwerp 1.74 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antwerp attack 1.255 / defence 1.012 | Union St. Gilloise attack 0.951 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.193. Antwerp carry an above-average attack rating of 1.255 — their 1.74 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Antwerp's last 36 games and Union St. Gilloise's last 36.
Result probabilities: Antwerp 51% | Draw 25% | Union St. Gilloise 25%. Fair-value odds: Antwerp 1.97 | Draw 4.07 | Union St. Gilloise 4.05. Antwerp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Antwerp at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Union St. Gilloise (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antwerp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Antwerp's last 10 home games and Union St. Gilloise's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Antwerp 60% (last 10 home games) | Union St. Gilloise 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 7 | Venue: Bosuilstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 15 September 2024 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antwerp 51% | Draw 25% | Union St. Gilloise 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Antwerp 1.74 / Union St. Gilloise 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Antwerp attack 1.255 / def 1.012 | Union St. Gilloise attack 0.951 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Antwerp xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Union St. Gilloise xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise FAQs
What time does Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Bosuilstadion.
What was the final score in Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise?
Antwerp 2 - 0 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Bosuilstadion.
What competition is Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 7) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Antwerp a 51% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Antwerp's attack at 1.25x the league average against Union St. Gilloise's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Union St. Gilloise's attack versus Antwerp's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Antwerp's last 36 games and Union St. Gilloise's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
51%
1.97
25%
4.07
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Antwerp xG
Total xG
2.88
1.15
Union St. Gilloise xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
18%
5.68
Win to Nil
16%
6.21
4%
23.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.1 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Antwerp and 1.15 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Antwerp's recent record stands at 18W 11D 17L from 46 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five.
Union St. Gilloise, meanwhile, have gone 27W 12D 7L across 46 games — 2.02 PPG, with W-L-W-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Antwerp heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Antwerp have managed 11W 5D 7L from their last 23 home games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union St. Gilloise's away record stands at 12W 7D 4L across their last 23 away games, a 1.87 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Antwerp are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 1.89 scored and 1.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union St. Gilloise in 61%.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antwerp
Early Season
Union St. Gilloise
Early Season
Antwerp (Home) vs Union St. Gilloise (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Antwerp
Early Season
Union St. Gilloise
Early Season
❓ Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise Form FAQs
What form are Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Antwerp have gone 18W 11D 17L in their last 46 games (1.41 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 27W 12D 7L in their last 46 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antwerp at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antwerp at home: 1.65 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 1.87 PPG.
Have Antwerp or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2024. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Union St. Gilloise have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 Mar 2025, when Union St. Gilloise won Union St. Gilloise 5-1 Antwerp.
Antwerp's record when hosting Union St. Gilloise specifically: 1W 2D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Antwerp
2
Draws
7
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Antwerp have won 1, Union St. Gilloise have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Antwerp 0-2 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antwerp 52%, Union St. Gilloise 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Antwerp) and 56% (Union St. Gilloise). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Antwerp keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Union St. Gilloise in 35%; Antwerp have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antwerp home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Antwerp's recent matches and 56% of Union St. Gilloise's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Antwerp's matches and 56% of Union St. Gilloise's.
Do Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Antwerp's recent matches and 74% of Union St. Gilloise's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Antwerp cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Union St. Gilloise.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antwerp beat Union St. Gilloise 2-0 at Bosuilstadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 1.74 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.15 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 1.25 / defence 1.01 against Union St. Gilloise attack 0.95 / defence 0.90, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antwerp 51% | Draw 25% | Union St. Gilloise 25%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 52%, Union St. Gilloise 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antwerp's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.41. Form was overturned, with Antwerp winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Antwerp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.74 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.