Antwerp 2-2 Genk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antwerp at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Antwerp face Genk.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Genk make the trip to Bosuilstadion to face Antwerp in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 20). The match kicks off on Thursday 26 December 2024 at 12:30 UK time.
Form
Antwerp (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Antwerp's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Genk have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Genk's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Antwerp against 1.90 for Genk. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Genk edge it 2 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 3 Nov 2024, ended Antwerp 0–2 Genk — a Genk win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Antwerp — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Genk — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antwerp 49% versus Genk 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antwerp 54% | Genk 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antwerp 2.01 xG and Genk 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antwerp attack 1.145 / defence 1.036 | Genk attack 1.168 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.653 / away 1.024. Data: built from Antwerp's last 49 games and Genk's last 49.
Result probabilities: Antwerp 52% | Draw 27% | Genk 21%. Fair-value odds: Antwerp 1.90 | Draw 3.72 | Genk 4.85. Antwerp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (2.01 / 1.24) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Antwerp are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antwerp if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.25 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Antwerp's last 10 home games and Genk's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Antwerp 50% (last 10 home games) | Genk 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antwerp vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 20 | Venue: Bosuilstadion • Kick-off: Thursday 26 December 2024 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antwerp 52% | Draw 27% | Genk 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Antwerp 2.01 / Genk 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Antwerp attack 1.145 / def 1.036 | Genk attack 1.168 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.653 / away 1.024 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Antwerp xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Genk xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Antwerp vs Genk FAQs
What time does Antwerp vs Genk kick off?
Antwerp vs Genk kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Thursday 26 December 2024 at Bosuilstadion.
What was the final score in Antwerp vs Genk?
Antwerp 2 - 2 Genk.
Where is Antwerp vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at Bosuilstadion.
What competition is Antwerp vs Genk part of?
Antwerp vs Genk is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 20) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Antwerp vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives Antwerp a 52% chance of winning, Genk a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antwerp vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Antwerp and Genk will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Antwerp vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Antwerp's attack rating (1.15) and Genk's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 2.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Genk's attack (1.17x) against Antwerp's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from Antwerp's last 49 games and Genk's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
52%
1.90
27%
3.72
21%
4.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Antwerp xG
Total xG
3.25
1.24
Genk xG
1.90
52%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
4.85
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
13%
7.43
Win to Nil
15%
6.58
3%
36.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Antwerp vs Genk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Antwerp vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Antwerp and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Antwerp and 1.24 for Genk, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Antwerp vs Genk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Antwerp's recent record stands at 25W 14D 20L from 59 games, a 1.51 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-W in the last five.
Genk, meanwhile, have gone 28W 14D 17L across 59 games — 1.66 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for Antwerp against 1.66 for Genk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Antwerp have managed 14W 6D 8L from their last 28 home games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Genk's away record stands at 10W 6D 12L across their last 28 away games, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antwerp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Antwerp are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 1.58 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antwerp
Blended
Genk
Blended
Antwerp (Home) vs Genk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Antwerp
Blended
Genk
Blended
❓ Antwerp vs Genk Form FAQs
What form are Antwerp and Genk in coming into this match?
Antwerp have gone 25W 14D 20L in their last 59 games (1.51 PPG), while Genk have gone 28W 14D 17L in their last 59 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antwerp at home or Genk away?
Antwerp's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antwerp at home: 1.71 PPG; Genk away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Antwerp or Genk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Genk in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antwerp won Antwerp 3-0 Genk on 7 Dec 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antwerp have gone 1W 3D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Genk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Antwerp
5
Draws
3
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Antwerp vs Genk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Genk?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Antwerp have won 2, Genk have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Antwerp and Genk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Antwerp 4-4 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Antwerp and Genk?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antwerp 50%, Genk 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Antwerp) and 50% (Genk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Antwerp keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antwerp home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Antwerp vs Genk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Antwerp and Genk matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Antwerp's recent matches and 57% of Genk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Antwerp and Genk matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Antwerp's matches and 50% of Genk's.
Do Antwerp and Genk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Antwerp's recent matches and 64% of Genk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Antwerp and Genk share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Bosuilstadion, Regular Season - 20, as Antwerp and Genk drew 2-2 in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 2.01 xG and Genk 1.24 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 1.15 / defence 1.04 against Genk attack 1.17 / defence 1.06, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antwerp 52% | Draw 27% | Genk 21%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 54%, Genk 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antwerp's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Genk's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antwerp 1.51 PPG, Genk 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Antwerp (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.