Antwerp 4-1 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antwerp at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antwerp vs Charleroi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Antwerp and Charleroi meet at Bosuilstadion in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 January 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Antwerp (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Antwerp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antwerp's home record at Bosuilstadion: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Bosuilstadion. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Antwerp are significantly better at Bosuilstadion than their overall form suggests.
Charleroi's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Charleroi have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Antwerp, 2 for Charleroi and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 2–3 with Charleroi winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Antwerp — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Charleroi — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antwerp 42% versus Charleroi 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antwerp 47% | Charleroi 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antwerp 1.74 xG and Charleroi 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antwerp attack 1.198 / defence 0.818 | Charleroi attack 0.625 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.610 / away 1.201. Data: 54 Antwerp games / 53 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antwerp 62% | Draw 27% | Charleroi 10%. Fair-value odds: Antwerp 1.61 | Draw 3.70 | Charleroi 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Antwerp (62%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Antwerp as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Antwerp 40% | Charleroi 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antwerp vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Bosuilstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jan 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antwerp 62% | Draw 27% | Charleroi 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 40% | xG Antwerp 1.74 / Charleroi 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: Antwerp attack 1.198 / def 0.818 | Charleroi attack 0.625 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.610 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Antwerp xG
Expected Goals
0.61
Charleroi xG
40%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antwerp vs Charleroi kick off?
Antwerp vs Charleroi kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 21 January 2024 at Bosuilstadion.
What was the final score in Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Antwerp 4 - 1 Charleroi.
Where is Antwerp vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Bosuilstadion.
What competition is Antwerp vs Charleroi part of?
Antwerp vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Antwerp a 62% chance of winning, Charleroi a 10% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Antwerp and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Antwerp vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Charleroi?
Record (2 meetings): Antwerp 0W | Draws 0 | Charleroi 2W.
What form are Antwerp and Charleroi in?
Antwerp (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Charleroi (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Antwerp's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Charleroi's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (0.62x) against Antwerp's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.61.
These ratings are built from 54/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.4%), 1-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
62%
1.60
27%
3.69
10%
9.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Antwerp xG
Total xG
2.35
0.61
Charleroi xG
1.60
62%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
9.58
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
54%
1.85
18%
5.69
Win to Nil
34%
2.95
2%
54.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 10.1 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.4 | 8.8 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Antwerp and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Antwerp and 0.61 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Antwerp's recent record stands at 26W 16D 11L from 53 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Antwerp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 19W 12D 22L across 53 games — 1.30 PPG, with D-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Antwerp by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Charleroi heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Antwerp have managed 17W 7D 2L from 26 games — 2.23 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.77 PPG overall — Antwerp are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Charleroi's away record stands at 7W 7D 12L across 26 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antwerp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Antwerp are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.25 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antwerp
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antwerp and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Antwerp have gone 26W 16D 11L in their last 53 games (1.77 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 19W 12D 22L in their last 53 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antwerp at home or Charleroi away?
Antwerp's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antwerp at home: 2.23 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Antwerp or Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Charleroi in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Charleroi have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antwerp won 4-1 on 21 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antwerp have gone 1W 0D 5L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Antwerp
1
Draws
7
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Antwerp have won 2, Charleroi have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Antwerp and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Antwerp 0-1 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Antwerp and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antwerp 42%, Charleroi 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Antwerp) and 50% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Antwerp keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Charleroi in 35%; Charleroi in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antwerp home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antwerp play Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Antwerp's recent matches and 50% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Antwerp vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Antwerp's recent games and 50% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antwerp and Charleroi tend to score early?
Antwerp have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Antwerp run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Charleroi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antwerp beat Charleroi 4-1 at Bosuilstadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 1.74 xG and Charleroi 0.61 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Antwerp beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 1.20 / defence 0.82 against Charleroi attack 0.62 / defence 0.90, drawn from 54/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antwerp 62% | Draw 27% | Charleroi 10%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 47%, Charleroi 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antwerp's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Charleroi's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Antwerp arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Antwerp (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.08 average — above their attacking norm. Charleroi (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.