Antwerp 4-2 AS Eupen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Antwerp at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Antwerp vs AS Eupen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees AS Eupen travel to Bosuilstadion to take on Antwerp. The game is scheduled for Thursday 16 December 2021, 17:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Antwerp have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Antwerp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Bosuilstadion, Antwerp have gone 5W 2D 2L this season (9 games, 1.89 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
AS Eupen — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for AS Eupen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Eupen's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 4L across 9 road games this term (1.44 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Antwerp are in the better shape of the two on current Jupiler Pro League data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Antwerp have won 1, AS Eupen 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 1–0 with Antwerp winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Antwerp trading profile (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
AS Eupen trading profile (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Antwerp 61% and AS Eupen 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antwerp 56% | AS Eupen 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antwerp 1.80 xG and AS Eupen 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antwerp attack 1.184 / defence 1.006 | AS Eupen attack 0.759 / defence 1.284. League average goals — home 1.187 / away 1.497. AS Eupen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.284 — this is suppressing Antwerp's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Antwerp games / 18 AS Eupen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antwerp 53% | Draw 23% | AS Eupen 24%. Fair-value odds: Antwerp 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | AS Eupen 4.17. Antwerp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Antwerp as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antwerp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Antwerp 56% | AS Eupen 56% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antwerp vs AS Eupen | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Bosuilstadion • Kick-off: Thursday 16 Dec 2021, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antwerp 53% | Draw 23% | AS Eupen 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Antwerp 1.80 / AS Eupen 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Antwerp attack 1.184 / def 1.006 | AS Eupen attack 0.759 / def 1.284 | league avg home 1.187 / away 1.497 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Antwerp xG
Expected Goals
1.14
AS Eupen xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antwerp vs AS Eupen kick off?
Antwerp vs AS Eupen kicked off at 17:45 on Thursday 16 December 2021 at Bosuilstadion.
What was the final score in Antwerp vs AS Eupen?
Antwerp 4 - 2 AS Eupen.
Where is Antwerp vs AS Eupen being played?
The match is being played at Bosuilstadion.
What competition is Antwerp vs AS Eupen part of?
Antwerp vs AS Eupen is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Antwerp vs AS Eupen?
Our statistical model gives Antwerp a 53% chance of winning, AS Eupen a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antwerp vs AS Eupen?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Antwerp and AS Eupen will score (BTTS).
Will Antwerp vs AS Eupen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and AS Eupen?
Record (1 meetings): Antwerp 1W | Draws 0 | AS Eupen 0W.
What form are Antwerp and AS Eupen in?
Antwerp (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. AS Eupen (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Antwerp's attack rating (1.18) and AS Eupen's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AS Eupen's attack versus Antwerp's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
53%
1.89
23%
4.33
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Antwerp xG
Total xG
2.95
1.14
AS Eupen xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
16%
6.07
Win to Nil
17%
5.94
4%
25.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.8 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antwerp vs AS Eupen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Antwerp and AS Eupen expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Antwerp and 1.14 for AS Eupen, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Antwerp vs AS Eupen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 18 outings, Antwerp have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 10W 3D 5L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Antwerp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Eupen's form line: 7W 4D 7L from 18 games, 1.39 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-W. The sample for AS Eupen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Antwerp are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against AS Eupen.
Venue Form
On home soil, Antwerp have posted 1.89 PPG from 9 outings (5W 2D 2L).
On the road, AS Eupen have gone 4W 1D 4L from 9 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antwerp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Antwerp are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; AS Eupen are on 1.56 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Antwerp have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; AS Eupen in 67%.
Last 18 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antwerp
Blended
AS Eupen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antwerp and AS Eupen in coming into this match?
Antwerp have gone 10W 3D 5L in their last 18 games (1.83 PPG), while AS Eupen have gone 7W 4D 7L in their last 18 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antwerp at home or AS Eupen away?
Antwerp's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antwerp at home: 1.89 PPG; AS Eupen away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Antwerp or AS Eupen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, AS Eupen in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Oct 2023, when Antwerp won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Antwerp's record when hosting AS Eupen specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Antwerp
0
Draws
1
AS Eupen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and AS Eupen?
From 6 meetings on record, Antwerp have won 5, AS Eupen have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Antwerp and AS Eupen last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2024, when AS Eupen 1-0 Antwerp.
Who has won more matches between Antwerp and AS Eupen?
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Antwerp see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antwerp 56%, AS Eupen 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Antwerp and 78% for AS Eupen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Antwerp keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; AS Eupen in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antwerp home games / AS Eupen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antwerp play AS Eupen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Antwerp's games and 56% of AS Eupen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antwerp vs AS Eupen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Antwerp's matches and 78% of AS Eupen's.
Do Antwerp and AS Eupen tend to score early?
Antwerp have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, AS Eupen in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Antwerp cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over AS Eupen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antwerp beat AS Eupen 4-2 at Bosuilstadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 1.80 xG and AS Eupen 1.14 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Antwerp beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AS Eupen outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 1.18 / defence 1.01 against AS Eupen attack 0.76 / defence 1.28, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antwerp 53% | Draw 23% | AS Eupen 24%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 56%, AS Eupen 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antwerp's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
AS Eupen's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Antwerp arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.39. That form edge translated into the three points. Antwerp (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AS Eupen (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.