Anderlecht 0-2 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union St. Gilloise at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Championship Round - 5 sees Union St. Gilloise travel to Lotto Park to take on Anderlecht. The game is scheduled for Sunday 15 May 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Anderlecht stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Anderlecht have posted 7W 2D 1L at Lotto Park — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lotto Park.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Union St. Gilloise have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Union St. Gilloise's away record: 7W 2D 1L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Anderlecht 2.00 PPG, Union St. Gilloise 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Anderlecht trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Union St. Gilloise trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Anderlecht 55% versus Union St. Gilloise 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Anderlecht 58% | Union St. Gilloise 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Anderlecht 1.45 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Anderlecht attack 1.340 / defence 0.960 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.431 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.213 / away 1.308. Anderlecht carry an above-average attack strength of 1.340 — their λ of 1.45 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Union St. Gilloise have an above-average attack strength of 1.431 — the away xG of 1.80 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 Anderlecht games / 34 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Anderlecht 31% | Draw 23% | Union St. Gilloise 46%. Fair-value odds: Anderlecht 3.23 | Draw 4.35 | Union St. Gilloise 2.17. Union St. Gilloise hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.45 / 1.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.25 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Anderlecht 40% | Union St. Gilloise 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Championship Round - 5 | Venue: Lotto Park • Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Anderlecht 31% | Draw 23% | Union St. Gilloise 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Anderlecht 1.45 / Union St. Gilloise 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Anderlecht attack 1.340 / def 0.960 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.431 / def 0.894 | league avg home 1.213 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Anderlecht xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Union St. Gilloise xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 15 May 2022 at Lotto Park.
What was the final score in Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise?
Anderlecht 0 - 2 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Lotto Park.
What competition is Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise is a Championship Round - 5 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Anderlecht a 31% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 46% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise in?
Anderlecht (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Anderlecht's attack at 1.34x the league average against Union St. Gilloise's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Union St. Gilloise's attack versus Anderlecht's defence, projects 1.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
31%
3.19
23%
4.37
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Anderlecht xG
Total xG
3.25
1.80
Union St. Gilloise xG
3.19
31%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
17%
6.03
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
5%
19.27
11%
9.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.1 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Anderlecht and 1.80 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Anderlecht's recent record stands at 20W 11D 7L from 38 games, a 1.87 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-W in the last five.
Union St. Gilloise, meanwhile, have gone 25W 6D 7L across 38 games — 2.13 PPG, with W-W-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Anderlecht on 1.87 PPG, Union St. Gilloise on 2.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Anderlecht have managed 11W 6D 2L from 19 games — 2.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union St. Gilloise's away record stands at 14W 3D 2L across 19 trips, a 2.37 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Anderlecht are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 2.13 scored and 0.82 conceded. Anderlecht's scoring rate against Union St. Gilloise's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Anderlecht
Current Season
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Anderlecht have gone 20W 11D 7L in their last 38 games (1.87 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 25W 6D 7L in their last 38 (2.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Anderlecht at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (2.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Anderlecht at home: 2.05 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 2.37 PPG.
Have Anderlecht or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
Anderlecht have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Union St. Gilloise have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 May 2026, when Union St. Gilloise won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Anderlecht's record when hosting Union St. Gilloise specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Anderlecht
2
Draws
6
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise?
From 10 meetings on record, Anderlecht have won 2, Union St. Gilloise have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Union St. Gilloise 5-1 Anderlecht.
Who has won more matches between Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Anderlecht 63%, Union St. Gilloise 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Anderlecht and 63% for Union St. Gilloise. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Anderlecht keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Union St. Gilloise in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Anderlecht home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Anderlecht play Union St. Gilloise?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Anderlecht's games and 47% of Union St. Gilloise's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Anderlecht's matches and 63% of Union St. Gilloise's.
Do Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
Anderlecht have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union St. Gilloise cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Anderlecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Anderlecht 0-2 at Lotto Park, Championship Round - 5, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Anderlecht 1.45 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.80 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Anderlecht fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Anderlecht attack 1.34 / defence 0.96 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.43 / defence 0.89, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Anderlecht 31% | Draw 23% | Union St. Gilloise 46%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Anderlecht 58%, Union St. Gilloise 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Anderlecht's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Anderlecht 1.87 PPG, Union St. Gilloise 2.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union St. Gilloise win broke the near-deadlock. Anderlecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.26 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.