Anderlecht 4-1 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Anderlecht at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Anderlecht vs Kortrijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lotto Park plays host to Anderlecht versus Kortrijk in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 18 September 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Anderlecht (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Anderlecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Anderlecht's home record at Lotto Park: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Anderlecht are significantly better at Lotto Park than their overall form suggests.
Kortrijk's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Kortrijk have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Anderlecht against 0.70 for Kortrijk. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Anderlecht 1W, Kortrijk 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2022, ended 3–2 with Anderlecht winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Anderlecht half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Kortrijk half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Anderlecht 52% versus Kortrijk 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Anderlecht 55% | Kortrijk 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Anderlecht 1.51 xG and Kortrijk 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Anderlecht attack 1.135 / defence 0.868 | Kortrijk attack 0.876 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.400. Data: 42 Anderlecht games / 42 Kortrijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Anderlecht 48% | Draw 26% | Kortrijk 27%. Fair-value odds: Anderlecht 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Kortrijk 3.70. Anderlecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Anderlecht at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Anderlecht if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Anderlecht 40% | Kortrijk 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Anderlecht vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Lotto Park • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Sep 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Anderlecht 48% | Draw 26% | Kortrijk 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Anderlecht 1.51 / Kortrijk 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Anderlecht attack 1.135 / def 0.868 | Kortrijk attack 0.876 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Anderlecht xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Kortrijk xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Anderlecht vs Kortrijk kick off?
Anderlecht vs Kortrijk kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 18 September 2022 at Lotto Park.
What was the final score in Anderlecht vs Kortrijk?
Anderlecht 4 - 1 Kortrijk.
Where is Anderlecht vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Lotto Park.
What competition is Anderlecht vs Kortrijk part of?
Anderlecht vs Kortrijk is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Anderlecht vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives Anderlecht a 48% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Anderlecht vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Anderlecht and Kortrijk will score (BTTS).
Will Anderlecht vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Kortrijk?
Record (2 meetings): Anderlecht 1W | Draws 1 | Kortrijk 0W.
What form are Anderlecht and Kortrijk in?
Anderlecht (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Kortrijk (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Anderlecht's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Kortrijk's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. Flip it around — Kortrijk's attack (0.88x) against Anderlecht's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
48%
2.10
26%
3.89
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Anderlecht xG
Total xG
2.58
1.06
Kortrijk xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
16%
6.09
6%
17.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.2 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Anderlecht vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Anderlecht and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Anderlecht and 1.06 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Anderlecht vs Kortrijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 42 outings, Anderlecht have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 20W 12D 10L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Anderlecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kortrijk's form line: 11W 11D 20L from 42 games, 1.05 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Kortrijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Anderlecht are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kortrijk.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Anderlecht have posted 1.90 PPG from 21 outings (11W 7D 3L).
On the road, Kortrijk have gone 6W 6D 9L from 21 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Anderlecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Anderlecht are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 1.14 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Anderlecht
Blended
Kortrijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Anderlecht and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
Anderlecht have gone 20W 12D 10L in their last 42 games (1.71 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 11W 11D 20L in their last 42 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Anderlecht at home or Kortrijk away?
Anderlecht's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Anderlecht at home: 1.90 PPG; Kortrijk away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Anderlecht or Kortrijk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Anderlecht have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Kortrijk in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Anderlecht go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Anderlecht won 4-0 on 3 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Anderlecht have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Kortrijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Anderlecht
3
Draws
1
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Kortrijk?
From 8 meetings on record, Anderlecht have won 4, Kortrijk have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Anderlecht and Kortrijk last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2025, when Kortrijk 0-2 Anderlecht.
Who has won more matches between Anderlecht and Kortrijk?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Anderlecht 57%, Kortrijk 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Anderlecht) and 38% (Kortrijk).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Anderlecht home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Anderlecht play Kortrijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Anderlecht's recent matches and 52% of Kortrijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Anderlecht vs Kortrijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Anderlecht's recent games and 38% of Kortrijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Anderlecht and Kortrijk tend to score early?
Anderlecht have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Kortrijk in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Anderlecht run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Kortrijk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Anderlecht beat Kortrijk 4-1 at Lotto Park, Regular Season - 9, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Anderlecht 1.51 xG and Kortrijk 1.06 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Anderlecht beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Anderlecht attack 1.14 / defence 0.87 against Kortrijk attack 0.88 / defence 0.91, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Anderlecht 48% | Draw 26% | Kortrijk 27%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Anderlecht 55%, Kortrijk 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Anderlecht's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Kortrijk's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Anderlecht arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.05. Form held, and they took the win. Anderlecht (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm. Kortrijk (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.