Zulte Waregem 2-2 Francs Borains – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zulte Waregem at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zulte Waregem vs Francs Borains encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Zulte Waregem welcome Francs Borains to Elindus Arena in Challenger Pro League (matchday 9). Kick-off is Saturday 26 October 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Zulte Waregem have gone 6W 2D 2L — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Zulte Waregem have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.00 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Francs Borains stand at 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Francs Borains have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Zulte Waregem carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Zulte Waregem, 2 for Francs Borains and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 25 Feb 2024, ended Zulte Waregem 1–2 Francs Borains — a Francs Borains win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Zulte Waregem in-play and half-time data (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Francs Borains in-play and half-time data (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zulte Waregem 55% versus Francs Borains 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 50% | Francs Borains 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 1.81 xG and Francs Borains 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 1.024 / defence 0.881 | Francs Borains attack 0.913 / defence 1.323. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.280. Francs Borains's defence rating of 1.323 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Zulte Waregem's projected output up. Data: built from Zulte Waregem's last 38 games and Francs Borains's last 38.
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 56% | Draw 23% | Francs Borains 21%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 1.79 | Draw 4.36 | Francs Borains 4.69. The model has a clear lean to Zulte Waregem (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zulte Waregem at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Zulte Waregem's last 10 home games and Francs Borains's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Zulte Waregem 50% (last 10 home games) | Francs Borains 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs Francs Borains | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 9 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 56% | Draw 23% | Francs Borains 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Zulte Waregem 1.81 / Francs Borains 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 1.024 / def 0.881 | Francs Borains attack 0.913 / def 1.323 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Zulte Waregem (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Francs Borains xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Zulte Waregem vs Francs Borains FAQs
What time does Zulte Waregem vs Francs Borains kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs Francs Borains kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Elindus Arena.
What was the final score in Zulte Waregem vs Francs Borains?
Zulte Waregem 2 - 2 Francs Borains.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs Francs Borains being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs Francs Borains part of?
Zulte Waregem vs Francs Borains is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 9) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs Francs Borains?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 56% chance of winning, Francs Borains a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Zulte Waregem the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs Francs Borains?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Zulte Waregem and Francs Borains will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Zulte Waregem vs Francs Borains have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Zulte Waregem's attack at 1.02x the league average against Francs Borains's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Francs Borains's attack versus Zulte Waregem's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Zulte Waregem's last 38 games and Francs Borains's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zulte Waregem Win
56%
1.79
23%
4.36
21%
4.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
2.84
1.03
Francs Borains xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
4.69
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
16%
6.13
Win to Nil
20%
5.03
3%
28.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 10.9 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Zulte Waregem vs Francs Borains Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs Francs Borains?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and Francs Borains expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 1.03 for Francs Borains, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs Francs Borains?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zulte Waregem's recent record stands at 20W 8D 10L from 38 games, a 1.79 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Francs Borains, meanwhile, have gone 11W 5D 22L across 38 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Zulte Waregem by 0.79 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Francs Borains heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Zulte Waregem have managed 7W 5D 7L from their last 19 home games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.79 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Francs Borains's away record stands at 6W 2D 11L across their last 19 away games, a 1.05 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Francs Borains are on 1.18 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Blended
Francs Borains
Blended
Zulte Waregem (Home) vs Francs Borains (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Zulte Waregem
Blended
Francs Borains
Blended
❓ Zulte Waregem vs Francs Borains Form FAQs
What form are Zulte Waregem and Francs Borains in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 20W 8D 10L in their last 38 games (1.79 PPG), while Francs Borains have gone 11W 5D 22L in their last 38 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or Francs Borains away?
Zulte Waregem's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 1.37 PPG; Francs Borains away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2023. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 15 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Zulte Waregem's record when hosting Francs Borains specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Zulte Waregem
1
Draws
2
Francs Borains
Recent Meetings
❓ Zulte Waregem vs Francs Borains H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Francs Borains?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Zulte Waregem have won 1, Francs Borains have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and Francs Borains last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 March 2025: Francs Borains 1-3 Zulte Waregem.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and Francs Borains?
Francs Borains have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zulte Waregem 53%, Francs Borains 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Zulte Waregem) and 68% (Francs Borains).
On the defensive side: Zulte Waregem have failed to score in 37% of games; Francs Borains in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / Francs Borains away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Zulte Waregem vs Francs Borains Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Zulte Waregem and Francs Borains matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Zulte Waregem's games and 58% of Francs Borains's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Zulte Waregem and Francs Borains matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Zulte Waregem's recent games and 68% of Francs Borains's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zulte Waregem and Francs Borains matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Zulte Waregem's recent matches and 90% of Francs Borains's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zulte Waregem and Francs Borains share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 9, as Zulte Waregem and Francs Borains drew 2-2 in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.81 xG and Francs Borains 1.03 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Francs Borains outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 1.02 / defence 0.88 against Francs Borains attack 0.91 / defence 1.32, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 56% | Draw 23% | Francs Borains 21%, with Zulte Waregem to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 50%, Francs Borains 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Francs Borains's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Zulte Waregem arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.