SK Beveren 2-0 Royal Excel Mouscron – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SK Beveren at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this SK Beveren vs Royal Excel Mouscron fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 28 as SK Beveren welcome Royal Excel Mouscron to Freethielstadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 17 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, SK Beveren have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Freethielstadion, SK Beveren have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — SK Beveren are significantly better at Freethielstadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Royal Excel Mouscron stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Royal Excel Mouscron, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Royal Excel Mouscron's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (SK Beveren) versus 1.00 (Royal Excel Mouscron). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for SK Beveren, 2 for Royal Excel Mouscron and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2022, ended 0–3 with Royal Excel Mouscron winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
SK Beveren in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Royal Excel Mouscron in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 59% versus Royal Excel Mouscron 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 63% | Royal Excel Mouscron 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.37 xG and Royal Excel Mouscron 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 1.019 / defence 1.153 | Royal Excel Mouscron attack 0.658 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.142 / away 1.280. Data: 27 SK Beveren games / 27 Royal Excel Mouscron games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 46% | Draw 27% | Royal Excel Mouscron 27%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Royal Excel Mouscron 3.70. SK Beveren hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SK Beveren as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SK Beveren offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SK Beveren 70% | Royal Excel Mouscron 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs Royal Excel Mouscron | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Freethielstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 46% | Draw 27% | Royal Excel Mouscron 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG SK Beveren 1.37 / Royal Excel Mouscron 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 1.019 / def 1.153 | Royal Excel Mouscron attack 0.658 / def 1.178 | league avg home 1.142 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Royal Excel Mouscron xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Beveren vs Royal Excel Mouscron kick off?
SK Beveren vs Royal Excel Mouscron kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 17 April 2022 at Freethielstadion.
What was the final score in SK Beveren vs Royal Excel Mouscron?
SK Beveren 2 - 0 Royal Excel Mouscron.
Where is SK Beveren vs Royal Excel Mouscron being played?
The match is being played at Freethielstadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs Royal Excel Mouscron part of?
SK Beveren vs Royal Excel Mouscron is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs Royal Excel Mouscron?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 46% chance of winning, Royal Excel Mouscron a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs Royal Excel Mouscron?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both SK Beveren and Royal Excel Mouscron will score (BTTS).
Will SK Beveren vs Royal Excel Mouscron have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Royal Excel Mouscron?
Record (3 meetings): SK Beveren 1W | Draws 0 | Royal Excel Mouscron 2W.
What form are SK Beveren and Royal Excel Mouscron in?
SK Beveren (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Royal Excel Mouscron (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SK Beveren's attack at 1.02x the league average against Royal Excel Mouscron's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Royal Excel Mouscron's attack versus SK Beveren's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
46%
2.17
27%
3.66
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
2.34
0.97
Royal Excel Mouscron xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
17%
5.73
7%
14.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.8 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs Royal Excel Mouscron?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and Royal Excel Mouscron expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for SK Beveren and 0.97 for Royal Excel Mouscron, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs Royal Excel Mouscron?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SK Beveren come into this having played 27 games, going 11W 5D 11L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-L. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Royal Excel Mouscron sit at 1.11 PPG from 27 outings (8W 6D 13L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Royal Excel Mouscron is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SK Beveren on 1.41 PPG, Royal Excel Mouscron on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
SK Beveren's home form reads 6W 1D 6L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Royal Excel Mouscron have taken 0.92 points per game from 13 outings (3W 3D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SK Beveren are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Royal Excel Mouscron are on 1.15 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Blended
Royal Excel Mouscron
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Beveren and Royal Excel Mouscron in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 11W 5D 11L in their last 27 games (1.41 PPG), while Royal Excel Mouscron have gone 8W 6D 13L in their last 27 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or Royal Excel Mouscron away?
SK Beveren's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 1.46 PPG; Royal Excel Mouscron away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SK Beveren and Royal Excel Mouscron runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2021, when SK Beveren won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SK Beveren's record when hosting Royal Excel Mouscron specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
SK Beveren
0
Draws
2
Royal Excel Mouscron
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Royal Excel Mouscron?
From 4 meetings on record, SK Beveren have won 2, Royal Excel Mouscron have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and Royal Excel Mouscron last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2022, when SK Beveren 2-0 Royal Excel Mouscron.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Royal Excel Mouscron are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 62%, Royal Excel Mouscron 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (SK Beveren) and 46% (Royal Excel Mouscron).
On the defensive side: Royal Excel Mouscron in 31%; SK Beveren have failed to score in 31% of games; Royal Excel Mouscron in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / Royal Excel Mouscron away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Beveren play Royal Excel Mouscron?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of SK Beveren's recent matches and 38% of Royal Excel Mouscron's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SK Beveren vs Royal Excel Mouscron usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of SK Beveren's recent games and 46% of Royal Excel Mouscron's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SK Beveren and Royal Excel Mouscron tend to score early?
SK Beveren have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Royal Excel Mouscron in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SK Beveren cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Royal Excel Mouscron.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren beat Royal Excel Mouscron 2-0 at Freethielstadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.37 xG and Royal Excel Mouscron 0.97 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Royal Excel Mouscron landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.02 / defence 1.15 against Royal Excel Mouscron attack 0.66 / defence 1.18, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 46% | Draw 27% | Royal Excel Mouscron 27%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 63%, Royal Excel Mouscron 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Beveren's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Royal Excel Mouscron's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SK Beveren 1.41 PPG, Royal Excel Mouscron 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SK Beveren win broke the near-deadlock. SK Beveren (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Royal Excel Mouscron (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.