Patro Eisden 4-1 Francs Borains – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Patro Eisden at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 5 as Patro Eisden welcome Francs Borains to Patrostadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 September 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Patro Eisden — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Patro Eisden have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Patro Eisden's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Patrostadion this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Patro Eisden are significantly better at Patrostadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Francs Borains stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Francs Borains have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Francs Borains's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Patro Eisden) versus 1.20 (Francs Borains). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Patro Eisden register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Francs Borains in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Patro Eisden, 0 for Francs Borains and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2024, ended 3–1 with Patro Eisden winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Patro Eisden in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Francs Borains in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Patro Eisden 44% versus Francs Borains 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Patro Eisden 56% | Francs Borains 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Patro Eisden 1.45 xG and Francs Borains 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Patro Eisden attack 1.220 / defence 0.983 | Francs Borains attack 1.016 / defence 0.863. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.447. Data: 34 Patro Eisden games / 34 Francs Borains games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Patro Eisden 37% | Draw 26% | Francs Borains 37%. Fair-value odds: Patro Eisden 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Francs Borains 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Patro Eisden 60% | Francs Borains 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Patrostadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Patro Eisden 37% | Draw 26% | Francs Borains 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Patro Eisden 1.45 / Francs Borains 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Patro Eisden attack 1.220 / def 0.983 | Francs Borains attack 1.016 / def 0.863 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.447 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Patro Eisden xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Francs Borains xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains kick off?
Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Patrostadion.
What was the final score in Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains?
Patro Eisden 4 - 1 Francs Borains.
Where is Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains being played?
The match is being played at Patrostadion.
What competition is Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains part of?
Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains?
Our statistical model gives Patro Eisden a 37% chance of winning, Francs Borains a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Patro Eisden and Francs Borains will score (BTTS).
Will Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and Francs Borains?
Record (2 meetings): Patro Eisden 1W | Draws 1 | Francs Borains 0W.
What form are Patro Eisden and Francs Borains in?
Patro Eisden (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. Francs Borains (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Patro Eisden's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Francs Borains's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. The same calculation in reverse, Francs Borains's attack versus Patro Eisden's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Patro Eisden Win
37%
2.68
26%
3.87
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Patro Eisden xG
Total xG
2.90
1.44
Francs Borains xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
24%
4.24
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
9%
11.37
9%
11.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.6 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Patro Eisden and Francs Borains expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Patro Eisden and 1.44 for Francs Borains, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Patro Eisden come into this having played 34 games, going 14W 12D 8L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Patro Eisden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Francs Borains sit at 1.12 PPG from 34 outings (11W 5D 18L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Francs Borains, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Patro Eisden carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Francs Borains — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Patro Eisden's home form reads 8W 4D 5L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, Francs Borains have taken 1.18 points per game from 17 outings (6W 2D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Patro Eisden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Patro Eisden are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Francs Borains are on 1.24 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Defensively: Patro Eisden have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Patro Eisden
Early Season
Francs Borains
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Patro Eisden and Francs Borains in coming into this match?
Patro Eisden have gone 14W 12D 8L in their last 34 games (1.59 PPG), while Francs Borains have gone 11W 5D 18L in their last 34 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Patro Eisden at home or Francs Borains away?
Patro Eisden's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Patro Eisden at home: 1.65 PPG; Francs Borains away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Patro Eisden or Francs Borains been keeping clean sheets recently?
Patro Eisden have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Francs Borains in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Apr 2026, when Patro Eisden won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Patro Eisden's record when hosting Francs Borains specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Patro Eisden
1
Draws
1
Francs Borains
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and Francs Borains?
From 6 meetings on record, Patro Eisden have won 4, Francs Borains have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Patro Eisden and Francs Borains last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Patro Eisden 4-0 Francs Borains.
Who has won more matches between Patro Eisden and Francs Borains?
Patro Eisden have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Patro Eisden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Patro Eisden 53%, Francs Borains 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Patro Eisden and 65% for Francs Borains. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Patro Eisden have failed to score in 29% of games; Francs Borains in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Patro Eisden home games / Francs Borains away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Patro Eisden play Francs Borains?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Patro Eisden's games and 59% of Francs Borains's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Patro Eisden's matches and 65% of Francs Borains's.
Do Patro Eisden and Francs Borains tend to score early?
Patro Eisden have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Francs Borains in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Patro Eisden run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Francs Borains.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Patro Eisden beat Francs Borains 4-1 at Patrostadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Patro Eisden 1.45 xG and Francs Borains 1.44 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Patro Eisden beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Patro Eisden attack 1.22 / defence 0.98 against Francs Borains attack 1.02 / defence 0.86, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Patro Eisden 37% | Draw 26% | Francs Borains 37%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Patro Eisden 56%, Francs Borains 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Patro Eisden's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Francs Borains's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Patro Eisden arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm. Francs Borains (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.