Oostende 0-1 Dender – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Dender at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oostende vs Dender fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Oostende host Dender at Diaz Arena in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 March 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Oostende stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Oostende, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Diaz Arena, Oostende have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Diaz Arena this season.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Dender have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dender, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dender away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Oostende 1.60 PPG, Dender 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Oostende have won 0, Dender 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Oostende trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Dender trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oostende 52% versus Dender 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oostende 57% | Dender 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oostende 0.93 xG and Dender 2.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oostende attack 0.665 / defence 1.260 | Dender attack 1.161 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.446. Oostende's attack strength of 0.665 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 24 Oostende games / 46 Dender games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oostende 15% | Draw 20% | Dender 64%. Fair-value odds: Oostende 6.67 | Draw 5.00 | Dender 1.56. The model has a clear lean to Dender (64%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dender are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Oostende 40% | Dender 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oostende vs Dender | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Diaz Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oostende 15% | Draw 20% | Dender 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 54% | xG Oostende 0.93 / Dender 2.12 • Poisson strength factors: Oostende attack 0.665 / def 1.260 | Dender attack 1.161 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.446 • Poisson stance: Dender (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Oostende xG
Expected Goals
2.12
Dender xG
54%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oostende vs Dender kick off?
Oostende vs Dender kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Diaz Arena.
What was the final score in Oostende vs Dender?
Oostende 0 - 1 Dender.
Where is Oostende vs Dender being played?
The match is being played at Diaz Arena.
What competition is Oostende vs Dender part of?
Oostende vs Dender is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Oostende vs Dender?
Our statistical model gives Oostende a 15% chance of winning, Dender a 64% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Dender the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oostende vs Dender?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Oostende and Dender will score (BTTS).
Will Oostende vs Dender have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oostende and Dender?
Record (1 meetings): Oostende 0W | Draws 1 | Dender 0W.
What form are Oostende and Dender in?
Oostende (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Dender (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Oostende's attack rating (0.67) and Dender's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dender's attack versus Oostende's defence, projects 2.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.6%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dender Win
15%
6.49
20%
4.94
64%
1.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Oostende xG
Total xG
3.05
2.12
Dender xG
6.49
15%
Home win
4.94
20%
Draw
1.55
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
12%
8.30
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
2%
53.85
25%
3.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 10.0 | 10.6 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oostende vs Dender?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Oostende and Dender expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Oostende and 2.12 for Dender, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Oostende vs Dender?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Oostende come into this having played 56 games, going 14W 13D 29L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W. The sample for Oostende is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dender sit at 1.39 PPG from 56 outings (21W 15D 20L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Dender is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dender carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Oostende — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Oostende's home form reads 6W 4D 18L across 28 games on their own ground, a 0.79 PPG return.
Away from home, Dender have taken 1.39 points per game from 28 outings (10W 9D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dender come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Oostende are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Dender are on 1.48 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oostende
Blended
Dender
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oostende and Dender in coming into this match?
Oostende have gone 14W 13D 29L in their last 56 games (0.98 PPG), while Dender have gone 21W 15D 20L in their last 56 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oostende at home or Dender away?
Dender's away record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oostende at home: 0.79 PPG; Dender away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Oostende
1
Draws
1
Dender
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oostende and Dender?
From 2 meetings on record, Oostende have won 0, Dender have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Oostende and Dender last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2024, when Oostende 0-1 Dender.
Who has won more matches between Oostende and Dender?
Dender have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Oostende are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oostende 50%, Dender 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Oostende) and 43% (Dender).
On the defensive side: Oostende have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oostende home games / Dender away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oostende play Dender?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Oostende's games and 64% of Dender's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Oostende vs Dender usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Oostende's recent games and 43% of Dender's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oostende and Dender tend to score early?
Oostende have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Dender in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dender edge out Oostende 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dender beat Oostende 0-1 at Diaz Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oostende 0.93 xG and Dender 2.12 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Oostende fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Dender landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oostende attack 0.67 / defence 1.26 against Dender attack 1.16 / defence 1.08, drawn from 24/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oostende 15% | Draw 20% | Dender 64%, with Dender to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oostende 57%, Dender 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oostende's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dender's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Dender arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.98. That form edge translated into the three points. Oostende (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward. Dender (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.