Olympic Charleroi 1-2 KRC Genk II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates KRC Genk II at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Olympic Charleroi vs KRC Genk II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
KRC Genk II make the trip to Stade de la Neuville to face Olympic Charleroi in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Friday 20 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Olympic Charleroi have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
At home at Stade de la Neuville, Olympic Charleroi have gone 0W 2D 8L this season (10 games, 0.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
KRC Genk II's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
KRC Genk II away from home this season: 0W 5D 5L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, KRC Genk II are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (0.90 vs 0.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Olympic Charleroi lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 7.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2025, ended 4–3 with Olympic Charleroi winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Olympic Charleroi — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
KRC Genk II — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympic Charleroi 50% versus KRC Genk II 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympic Charleroi 57% | KRC Genk II 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympic Charleroi 1.04 xG and KRC Genk II 2.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympic Charleroi attack 0.576 / defence 1.592 | KRC Genk II attack 0.985 / defence 1.313. League average goals — home 1.376 / away 1.374. Olympic Charleroi's attack strength of 0.576 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. KRC Genk II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.313 — this is suppressing Olympic Charleroi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Olympic Charleroi games / 57 KRC Genk II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympic Charleroi 17% | Draw 20% | KRC Genk II 63%. Fair-value odds: Olympic Charleroi 5.88 | Draw 5.00 | KRC Genk II 1.59. The model has a clear lean to KRC Genk II (63%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, KRC Genk II are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Olympic Charleroi 40% | KRC Genk II 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympic Charleroi vs KRC Genk II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stade de la Neuville • Kick-off: Friday 20 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympic Charleroi 17% | Draw 20% | KRC Genk II 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 57% | xG Olympic Charleroi 1.04 / KRC Genk II 2.15 • Poisson strength factors: Olympic Charleroi attack 0.576 / def 1.592 | KRC Genk II attack 0.985 / def 1.313 | league avg home 1.376 / away 1.374 • Poisson stance: KRC Genk II (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Olympic Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
2.15
KRC Genk II xG
57%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympic Charleroi vs KRC Genk II kick off?
Olympic Charleroi vs KRC Genk II kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 20 March 2026 at Stade de la Neuville.
What was the final score in Olympic Charleroi vs KRC Genk II?
Olympic Charleroi 1 - 2 KRC Genk II.
Where is Olympic Charleroi vs KRC Genk II being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Neuville.
What competition is Olympic Charleroi vs KRC Genk II part of?
Olympic Charleroi vs KRC Genk II is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Olympic Charleroi vs KRC Genk II?
Our statistical model gives Olympic Charleroi a 17% chance of winning, KRC Genk II a 63% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making KRC Genk II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympic Charleroi vs KRC Genk II?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Olympic Charleroi and KRC Genk II will score (BTTS).
Will Olympic Charleroi vs KRC Genk II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympic Charleroi and KRC Genk II?
Record (1 meetings): Olympic Charleroi 1W | Draws 0 | KRC Genk II 0W.
What form are Olympic Charleroi and KRC Genk II in?
Olympic Charleroi (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. KRC Genk II (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Olympic Charleroi's attacking strength (0.58x league average) is weighed against KRC Genk II's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. Flip it around — KRC Genk II's attack (0.98x) against Olympic Charleroi's defence (1.59x) — and the away total comes out at 2.15.
These ratings are built from 28/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
KRC Genk II Win
17%
5.78
20%
5.02
63%
1.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.5%
Away win
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Olympic Charleroi xG
Total xG
3.19
2.15
KRC Genk II xG
5.78
17%
Home win
5.02
20%
Draw
1.59
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
12%
8.62
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
2%
49.82
22%
4.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympic Charleroi vs KRC Genk II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Olympic Charleroi and KRC Genk II expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Olympic Charleroi and 2.15 for KRC Genk II, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympic Charleroi vs KRC Genk II?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 28 outings, Olympic Charleroi have picked up 0.57 PPG on a 3W 7D 18L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
KRC Genk II's form line: 6W 7D 15L from 28 games, 0.89 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.57 PPG for Olympic Charleroi against 0.89 for KRC Genk II. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Olympic Charleroi have posted 0.14 PPG from 14 outings (0W 2D 12L). That actually lags their 0.57 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, KRC Genk II have gone 2W 5D 7L from 14 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KRC Genk II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Olympic Charleroi are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; KRC Genk II are on 1.25 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KRC Genk II in 61%.
Last 28 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympic Charleroi
Current Season
KRC Genk II
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympic Charleroi and KRC Genk II in coming into this match?
Olympic Charleroi have gone 3W 7D 18L in their last 28 games (0.57 PPG), while KRC Genk II have gone 6W 7D 15L in their last 28 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympic Charleroi at home or KRC Genk II away?
KRC Genk II's away record (0.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympic Charleroi at home: 0.14 PPG; KRC Genk II away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Olympic Charleroi
0
Draws
1
KRC Genk II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympic Charleroi and KRC Genk II?
From 2 meetings on record, Olympic Charleroi have won 1, KRC Genk II have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Olympic Charleroi and KRC Genk II last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Olympic Charleroi 1-2 KRC Genk II.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Olympic Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympic Charleroi 36%, KRC Genk II 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Olympic Charleroi and 71% for KRC Genk II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Olympic Charleroi have failed to score in 64% of games; KRC Genk II in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympic Charleroi home games / KRC Genk II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympic Charleroi play KRC Genk II?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Olympic Charleroi's recent matches and 71% of KRC Genk II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympic Charleroi vs KRC Genk II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Olympic Charleroi's matches and 71% of KRC Genk II's.
Do Olympic Charleroi and KRC Genk II tend to score early?
Olympic Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, KRC Genk II in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as KRC Genk II edge out Olympic Charleroi 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KRC Genk II beat Olympic Charleroi 1-2 at Stade de la Neuville, Regular Season - 31, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympic Charleroi 1.04 xG and KRC Genk II 2.15 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympic Charleroi attack 0.58 / defence 1.59 against KRC Genk II attack 0.98 / defence 1.31, drawn from 28/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympic Charleroi 17% | Draw 20% | KRC Genk II 63%, with KRC Genk II to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympic Charleroi 57%, KRC Genk II 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympic Charleroi's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
KRC Genk II's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Olympic Charleroi 0.57 PPG, KRC Genk II 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the KRC Genk II win broke the near-deadlock. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.