Lommel United 1-0 Zulte Waregem – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lommel United at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lommel United host Zulte Waregem at Soeverein Stadion in Challenger Pro League, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 1 May 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lommel United — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lommel United have posted 5W 2D 3L at Soeverein Stadion — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Zulte Waregem have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, Zulte Waregem have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lommel United at 1.50 PPG versus Zulte Waregem's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Lommel United, 0 for Zulte Waregem and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Lommel United in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Zulte Waregem in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lommel United 54% versus Zulte Waregem 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lommel United 60% | Zulte Waregem 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lommel United 1.41 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lommel United attack 1.203 / defence 0.770 | Zulte Waregem attack 1.230 / defence 0.851. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.377. Zulte Waregem have an above-average attack strength of 1.230 — the away xG of 1.30 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Lommel United's defence rating of 0.770 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 Lommel United games / 30 Zulte Waregem games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lommel United 40% | Draw 26% | Zulte Waregem 35%. Fair-value odds: Lommel United 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Zulte Waregem 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lommel United are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lommel United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Lommel United 50% | Zulte Waregem 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals | Venue: Soeverein Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 May 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lommel United 40% | Draw 26% | Zulte Waregem 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Lommel United 1.41 / Zulte Waregem 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Lommel United attack 1.203 / def 0.770 | Zulte Waregem attack 1.230 / def 0.851 | league avg home 1.379 / away 1.377 • Poisson stance: Lommel United (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Lommel United xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Zulte Waregem xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 1 May 2024 at Soeverein Stadion.
What was the final score in Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem?
Lommel United 1 - 0 Zulte Waregem.
Where is Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at Soeverein Stadion.
What competition is Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem part of?
Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem is a Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives Lommel United a 40% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lommel United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Lommel United and Zulte Waregem will score (BTTS).
Will Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Zulte Waregem?
Record (3 meetings): Lommel United 1W | Draws 2 | Zulte Waregem 0W.
What form are Lommel United and Zulte Waregem in?
Lommel United (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Zulte Waregem (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lommel United's attack rating (1.20) and Zulte Waregem's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zulte Waregem's attack versus Lommel United's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lommel United Win
40%
2.53
26%
3.89
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Lommel United xG
Total xG
2.72
1.30
Zulte Waregem xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
11%
9.32
8%
11.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.2 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Lommel United and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Lommel United and 1.30 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lommel United's recent record stands at 31W 11D 21L from 63 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-D in the last five.
Zulte Waregem, meanwhile, have gone 20W 16D 27L across 63 games — 1.21 PPG, with D-D-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lommel United by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Zulte Waregem heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lommel United have managed 17W 4D 10L from 31 games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zulte Waregem's away record stands at 14W 7D 10L across 31 trips, a 1.58 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Lommel United are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.59 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem in 65%.
Last 63 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lommel United
Current Season
Zulte Waregem
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lommel United and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
Lommel United have gone 31W 11D 21L in their last 63 games (1.65 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 20W 16D 27L in their last 63 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lommel United at home or Zulte Waregem away?
Lommel United's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lommel United at home: 1.77 PPG; Zulte Waregem away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Lommel United or Zulte Waregem been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lommel United have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Zulte Waregem in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lommel United and Zulte Waregem runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Feb 2024, when Lommel United won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lommel United's record when hosting Zulte Waregem specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Lommel United
2
Draws
1
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Zulte Waregem?
From 6 meetings on record, Lommel United have won 3, Zulte Waregem have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lommel United and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Zulte Waregem 0-1 Lommel United.
Who has won more matches between Lommel United and Zulte Waregem?
Lommel United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lommel United 48%, Zulte Waregem 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Lommel United) and 61% (Zulte Waregem). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lommel United keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lommel United home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lommel United play Zulte Waregem?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Lommel United's games and 64% of Zulte Waregem's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Lommel United's matches and 61% of Zulte Waregem's.
Do Lommel United and Zulte Waregem tend to score early?
Lommel United have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Zulte Waregem in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lommel United edge out Zulte Waregem 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lommel United beat Zulte Waregem 1-0 at Soeverein Stadion, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 1.41 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.30 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Zulte Waregem landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 1.20 / defence 0.77 against Zulte Waregem attack 1.23 / defence 0.85, drawn from 52/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lommel United 40% | Draw 26% | Zulte Waregem 35%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 60%, Zulte Waregem 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lommel United's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lommel United arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Lommel United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.