Lommel United 3-1 SK Beveren – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lommel United at 57% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lommel United face SK Beveren.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lommel United host SK Beveren at Soeverein Stadion in Challenger Pro League (matchday 30). Kick-off is Friday 19 April 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lommel United stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Lommel United have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, SK Beveren have recorded 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, SK Beveren have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lommel United at 1.70 PPG versus SK Beveren's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Lommel United have won 1, SK Beveren 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 12 Nov 2023, ended Lommel United 2–2 SK Beveren — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Lommel United in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
SK Beveren in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lommel United 52% versus SK Beveren 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lommel United 61% | SK Beveren 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lommel United 1.79 xG and SK Beveren 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lommel United attack 1.153 / defence 0.759 | SK Beveren attack 0.921 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.370. Lommel United have a tight defence (rating 0.759), which is pulling SK Beveren's projected output down. Data: built from Lommel United's last 51 games and SK Beveren's last 51.
Result probabilities: Lommel United 57% | Draw 23% | SK Beveren 20%. Fair-value odds: Lommel United 1.75 | Draw 4.33 | SK Beveren 5.02. The model has a clear lean to Lommel United (57%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lommel United at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Lommel United's last 10 home games and SK Beveren's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Lommel United 50% (last 10 home games) | SK Beveren 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lommel United vs SK Beveren | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 30 | Venue: Soeverein Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 19 April 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lommel United 57% | Draw 23% | SK Beveren 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Lommel United 1.79 / SK Beveren 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Lommel United attack 1.153 / def 0.759 | SK Beveren attack 0.921 / def 1.172 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: Lommel United (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Lommel United xG
Expected Goals
0.96
SK Beveren xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lommel United vs SK Beveren FAQs
What time does Lommel United vs SK Beveren kick off?
Lommel United vs SK Beveren kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 19 April 2024 at Soeverein Stadion.
What was the final score in Lommel United vs SK Beveren?
Lommel United 3 - 1 SK Beveren.
Where is Lommel United vs SK Beveren being played?
The match is being played at Soeverein Stadion.
What competition is Lommel United vs SK Beveren part of?
Lommel United vs SK Beveren is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 30) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lommel United vs SK Beveren?
Our statistical model gives Lommel United a 57% chance of winning, SK Beveren a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Lommel United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lommel United vs SK Beveren?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Lommel United and SK Beveren will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lommel United vs SK Beveren have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lommel United's attack at 1.15x the league average against SK Beveren's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SK Beveren's attack versus Lommel United's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lommel United's last 51 games and SK Beveren's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lommel United Win
57%
1.75
23%
4.33
20%
5.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Lommel United xG
Total xG
2.75
0.96
SK Beveren xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
5.02
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
17%
6.01
Win to Nil
22%
4.57
3%
30.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.0 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lommel United vs SK Beveren Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lommel United vs SK Beveren?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Lommel United and SK Beveren expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Lommel United and 0.96 for SK Beveren, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Lommel United vs SK Beveren?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lommel United come into this having played 61 games, going 30W 10D 21L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-L.
On the other side, SK Beveren sit at 1.85 PPG from 61 outings (33W 14D 14L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lommel United on 1.64 PPG, SK Beveren on 1.85. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Lommel United's home form reads 16W 4D 10L across their last 30 home games, a 1.73 PPG return.
Away from home, SK Beveren have taken 1.60 points per game from their last 30 away games (13W 9D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Lommel United are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; SK Beveren are on 1.95 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lommel United
Current Season
SK Beveren
Current Season
Lommel United (Home) vs SK Beveren (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lommel United
Current Season
SK Beveren
Current Season
❓ Lommel United vs SK Beveren Form FAQs
What form are Lommel United and SK Beveren in coming into this match?
Lommel United have gone 30W 10D 21L in their last 61 games (1.64 PPG), while SK Beveren have gone 33W 14D 14L in their last 61 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lommel United at home or SK Beveren away?
Lommel United's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lommel United at home: 1.73 PPG; SK Beveren away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Lommel United or SK Beveren been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lommel United have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, SK Beveren in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from March 2022. They cover more than one competition — Challenger Pro League, Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 9 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Lommel United's record when hosting SK Beveren specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Lommel United
3
Draws
4
SK Beveren
Recent Meetings
❓ Lommel United vs SK Beveren H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and SK Beveren?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lommel United have won 3, SK Beveren have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lommel United and SK Beveren last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 October 2026: SK Beveren 1-3 Lommel United.
Who has won more matches between Lommel United and SK Beveren?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lommel United 47%, SK Beveren 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lommel United) and 60% (SK Beveren). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lommel United keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; SK Beveren in 37%; SK Beveren in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lommel United home games / SK Beveren away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lommel United vs SK Beveren Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lommel United and SK Beveren matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Lommel United's recent matches and 47% of SK Beveren's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lommel United and SK Beveren matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Lommel United's matches and 60% of SK Beveren's.
Do Lommel United and SK Beveren matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Lommel United's recent matches and 73% of SK Beveren's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lommel United cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over SK Beveren.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lommel United beat SK Beveren 3-1 at Soeverein Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 1.79 xG and SK Beveren 0.96 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Lommel United beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 1.15 / defence 0.76 against SK Beveren attack 0.92 / defence 1.17, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lommel United 57% | Draw 23% | SK Beveren 20%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 61%, SK Beveren 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lommel United's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
SK Beveren's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lommel United 1.64 PPG, SK Beveren 1.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lommel United win broke the near-deadlock. Lommel United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. SK Beveren (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.