Lommel United 0-1 Patro Eisden – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Patro Eisden (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lommel United face Patro Eisden.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Challenger Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Patro Eisden travel to Soeverein Stadion to take on Lommel United. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 March 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lommel United stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lommel United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lommel United's home record at Soeverein Stadion: 0W 5D 5L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Patro Eisden have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Patro Eisden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, Patro Eisden have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Patro Eisden's 1.70 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Lommel United's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Patro Eisden, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Lommel United.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2024, ended 0–4 with Patro Eisden winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Patro Eisden have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Lommel United in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Patro Eisden in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lommel United 62% versus Patro Eisden 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lommel United 61% | Patro Eisden 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lommel United 0.82 xG and Patro Eisden 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lommel United attack 0.789 / defence 1.173 | Patro Eisden attack 1.093 / defence 0.766. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.363. Lommel United's attack strength of 0.789 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Patro Eisden's defence strength of 0.766 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 54 Lommel United games / 54 Patro Eisden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lommel United 17% | Draw 23% | Patro Eisden 59%. Fair-value odds: Lommel United 5.88 | Draw 4.35 | Patro Eisden 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Patro Eisden (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Patro Eisden at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Lommel United 80% | Patro Eisden 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lommel United vs Patro Eisden | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Soeverein Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Mar 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lommel United 17% | Draw 23% | Patro Eisden 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 46% | xG Lommel United 0.82 / Patro Eisden 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Lommel United attack 0.789 / def 1.173 | Patro Eisden attack 1.093 / def 0.766 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: Patro Eisden (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Lommel United xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Patro Eisden xG
46%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lommel United vs Patro Eisden kick off?
Lommel United vs Patro Eisden kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 15 March 2025 at Soeverein Stadion.
What was the final score in Lommel United vs Patro Eisden?
Lommel United 0 - 1 Patro Eisden.
Where is Lommel United vs Patro Eisden being played?
The match is being played at Soeverein Stadion.
What competition is Lommel United vs Patro Eisden part of?
Lommel United vs Patro Eisden is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lommel United vs Patro Eisden?
Our statistical model gives Lommel United a 17% chance of winning, Patro Eisden a 59% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Patro Eisden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lommel United vs Patro Eisden?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Lommel United and Patro Eisden will score (BTTS).
Will Lommel United vs Patro Eisden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Patro Eisden?
Record (3 meetings): Lommel United 0W | Draws 0 | Patro Eisden 3W.
What form are Lommel United and Patro Eisden in?
Lommel United (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Patro Eisden (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lommel United's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Patro Eisden's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.82. The same calculation in reverse, Patro Eisden's attack versus Lommel United's defence, projects 1.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.9%), 0-2 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Patro Eisden Win
17%
5.76
23%
4.30
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.7%
Away win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Lommel United xG
Total xG
2.57
1.75
Patro Eisden xG
5.76
17%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
17%
5.75
44%
2.28
Win to Nil
3%
33.10
26%
3.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 13.3 | 11.7 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.0 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lommel United vs Patro Eisden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Lommel United and Patro Eisden expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Lommel United and 1.75 for Patro Eisden, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Lommel United vs Patro Eisden?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lommel United come into this having played 56 games, going 19W 15D 22L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-W. The sample for Lommel United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Patro Eisden sit at 1.70 PPG from 56 outings (26W 17D 13L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Patro Eisden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Patro Eisden carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Lommel United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Lommel United's home form reads 8W 9D 10L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Patro Eisden have taken 1.63 points per game from 27 outings (11W 11D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Patro Eisden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lommel United are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Patro Eisden are on 1.61 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lommel United have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Patro Eisden in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lommel United
Blended
Patro Eisden
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lommel United and Patro Eisden in coming into this match?
Lommel United have gone 19W 15D 22L in their last 56 games (1.29 PPG), while Patro Eisden have gone 26W 17D 13L in their last 56 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lommel United at home or Patro Eisden away?
Patro Eisden's away record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lommel United at home: 1.22 PPG; Patro Eisden away: 1.63 PPG.
Have Lommel United or Patro Eisden been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lommel United have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Patro Eisden in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Dec 2024, when Patro Eisden won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lommel United's record when hosting Patro Eisden specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Lommel United
1
Draws
4
Patro Eisden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Patro Eisden?
From 6 meetings on record, Lommel United have won 1, Patro Eisden have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lommel United and Patro Eisden last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Lommel United 1-1 Patro Eisden.
Who has won more matches between Lommel United and Patro Eisden?
Patro Eisden have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Patro Eisden see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lommel United 59%, Patro Eisden 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Lommel United) and 41% (Patro Eisden).
On the defensive side: Patro Eisden in 52%; Lommel United have failed to score in 26% of games; Patro Eisden in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lommel United home games / Patro Eisden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lommel United play Patro Eisden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Lommel United's recent matches and 41% of Patro Eisden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lommel United vs Patro Eisden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Lommel United's recent games and 41% of Patro Eisden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lommel United and Patro Eisden tend to score early?
Lommel United have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Patro Eisden in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Patro Eisden edge out Lommel United 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Patro Eisden beat Lommel United 0-1 at Soeverein Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 0.82 xG and Patro Eisden 1.75 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lommel United fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 0.79 / defence 1.17 against Patro Eisden attack 1.09 / defence 0.77, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lommel United 17% | Draw 23% | Patro Eisden 59%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 61%, Patro Eisden 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lommel United's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Patro Eisden's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Patro Eisden arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.29. Form held, and they took the win. Lommel United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.