KRC Genk II 1-3 K. Lierse S.K. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates K. Lierse S.K. at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this KRC Genk II vs K. Lierse S.K. encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
K. Lierse S.K. make the trip to De Leunen to face KRC Genk II in Challenger Pro League (matchday 30). The match kicks off on Friday 18 April 2025 at 20:00 UK time.
Form
KRC Genk II (all games): 0W 2D 8L across their last 10 — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
KRC Genk II's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
K. Lierse S.K.'s record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
K. Lierse S.K.'s form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, K. Lierse S.K. are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from KRC Genk II's last 10 home games and K. Lierse S.K.'s last 10 away games) — KRC Genk II have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, K. Lierse S.K. in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for KRC Genk II, 3 for K. Lierse S.K. and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.6 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 22 Nov 2024, ended KRC Genk II 2–2 K. Lierse S.K. — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
KRC Genk II — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
K. Lierse S.K. — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — KRC Genk II 66% and K. Lierse S.K. 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (KRC Genk II 69% | K. Lierse S.K. 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KRC Genk II 1.24 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KRC Genk II attack 0.883 / defence 1.255 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.919 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.237. KRC Genk II's defence rating of 1.255 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing K. Lierse S.K.'s projected output up. Data: built from KRC Genk II's last 58 games and K. Lierse S.K.'s last 58.
Result probabilities: KRC Genk II 33% | Draw 26% | K. Lierse S.K. 41%. Fair-value odds: KRC Genk II 3.05 | Draw 3.87 | K. Lierse S.K. 2.42. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates K. Lierse S.K. as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on K. Lierse S.K. if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — low conviction — though recent form (KRC Genk II's last 10 home games and K. Lierse S.K.'s last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches point the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: KRC Genk II 60% (last 10 home games) | K. Lierse S.K. 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KRC Genk II vs K. Lierse S.K. | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 30 | Venue: De Leunen • Kick-off: Friday 18 April 2025 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KRC Genk II 33% | Draw 26% | K. Lierse S.K. 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG KRC Genk II 1.24 / K. Lierse S.K. 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: KRC Genk II attack 0.883 / def 1.255 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.919 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: K. Lierse S.K. (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
KRC Genk II xG
Expected Goals
1.43
K. Lierse S.K. xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ KRC Genk II vs K. Lierse S.K. FAQs
What time does KRC Genk II vs K. Lierse S.K. kick off?
KRC Genk II vs K. Lierse S.K. kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 18 April 2025 at De Leunen.
What was the final score in KRC Genk II vs K. Lierse S.K.?
KRC Genk II 1 - 3 K. Lierse S.K..
Where is KRC Genk II vs K. Lierse S.K. being played?
The match is being played at De Leunen.
What competition is KRC Genk II vs K. Lierse S.K. part of?
KRC Genk II vs K. Lierse S.K. is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 30) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win KRC Genk II vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our statistical model gives KRC Genk II a 33% chance of winning, K. Lierse S.K. a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making K. Lierse S.K. the favourite.
Will both teams score in KRC Genk II vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both KRC Genk II and K. Lierse S.K. will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will KRC Genk II vs K. Lierse S.K. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from KRC Genk II's attack rating (0.88) and K. Lierse S.K.'s defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — K. Lierse S.K.'s attack (0.92x) against KRC Genk II's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from KRC Genk II's last 58 games and K. Lierse S.K.'s last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
K. Lierse S.K. Win
33%
3.05
26%
3.87
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
KRC Genk II xG
Total xG
2.67
1.43
K. Lierse S.K. xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
8%
12.69
12%
8.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.9 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.3 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ KRC Genk II vs K. Lierse S.K. Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for KRC Genk II vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are KRC Genk II and K. Lierse S.K. expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for KRC Genk II and 1.43 for K. Lierse S.K., a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for KRC Genk II vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
KRC Genk II come into this having played 58 games, going 13W 12D 33L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, K. Lierse S.K. sit at 1.24 PPG from 58 outings (20W 12D 26L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.88 PPG for KRC Genk II against 1.24 for K. Lierse S.K.. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
KRC Genk II's home form reads 8W 6D 14L across their last 28 home games, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, K. Lierse S.K. have taken 0.96 points per game from their last 28 away games (7W 6D 15L).
Attack vs Defence
KRC Genk II are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; K. Lierse S.K. are on 1.40 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KRC Genk II have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; K. Lierse S.K. in 60%.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KRC Genk II
Current Season
K. Lierse S.K.
Current Season
KRC Genk II (Home) vs K. Lierse S.K. (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
KRC Genk II
Current Season
K. Lierse S.K.
Current Season
❓ KRC Genk II vs K. Lierse S.K. Form FAQs
What form are KRC Genk II and K. Lierse S.K. in coming into this match?
KRC Genk II have gone 13W 12D 33L in their last 58 games (0.88 PPG), while K. Lierse S.K. have gone 20W 12D 26L in their last 58 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KRC Genk II at home or K. Lierse S.K. away?
KRC Genk II's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KRC Genk II at home: 1.07 PPG; K. Lierse S.K. away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between KRC Genk II and K. Lierse S.K., the earliest from August 2022. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: K. Lierse S.K. have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KRC Genk II won KRC Genk II 4-1 K. Lierse S.K. on 14 Aug 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KRC Genk II have gone 1W 0D 3L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against K. Lierse S.K. — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
KRC Genk II
1
Draws
6
K. Lierse S.K.
Recent Meetings
❓ KRC Genk II vs K. Lierse S.K. H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and K. Lierse S.K.?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, KRC Genk II have won 1, K. Lierse S.K. have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did KRC Genk II and K. Lierse S.K. last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: KRC Genk II 2-3 K. Lierse S.K..
Who has won more matches between KRC Genk II and K. Lierse S.K.?
K. Lierse S.K. have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
K. Lierse S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KRC Genk II 64%, K. Lierse S.K. 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for KRC Genk II and 61% for K. Lierse S.K.. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: K. Lierse S.K. in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KRC Genk II home games / K. Lierse S.K. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ KRC Genk II vs K. Lierse S.K. Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in KRC Genk II and K. Lierse S.K. matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of KRC Genk II's games and 57% of K. Lierse S.K.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are KRC Genk II and K. Lierse S.K. matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of KRC Genk II's matches and 61% of K. Lierse S.K.'s.
Do KRC Genk II and K. Lierse S.K. matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of KRC Genk II's recent matches and 89% of K. Lierse S.K.'s — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
K. Lierse S.K. cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over KRC Genk II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
K. Lierse S.K. beat KRC Genk II 1-3 at De Leunen, Regular Season - 30, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KRC Genk II 1.24 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.43 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. K. Lierse S.K. outscored their 1.43 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KRC Genk II attack 0.88 / defence 1.25 against K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.92 / defence 1.02, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KRC Genk II 33% | Draw 26% | K. Lierse S.K. 41%, with K. Lierse S.K. to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KRC Genk II 69%, K. Lierse S.K. 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KRC Genk II's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — KRC Genk II 0.88 PPG, K. Lierse S.K. 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the K. Lierse S.K. win broke the near-deadlock. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.