K. Lierse S.K. 1-1 Deinze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates K. Lierse S.K. at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this K. Lierse S.K. vs Deinze fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 19 as K. Lierse S.K. welcome Deinze to Herman Vanderpoortenstadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 4 February 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, K. Lierse S.K. have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for K. Lierse S.K., so this record blends games from this season and last.
K. Lierse S.K.'s form when playing at home: 3W 3D 2L across 8 games at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Deinze — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Deinze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Deinze away from home this season: 1W 5D 2L from 8 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — K. Lierse S.K. at 1.10 PPG versus Deinze's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 75% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for K. Lierse S.K., 0 for Deinze and 2 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
K. Lierse S.K. in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 59%.
Deinze in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — K. Lierse S.K. 76% and Deinze 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (K. Lierse S.K. 76% | Deinze 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects K. Lierse S.K. 1.68 xG and Deinze 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.037 / defence 1.284 | Deinze attack 0.808 / defence 1.458. League average goals — home 1.111 / away 1.566. Deinze bring a strong defensive rating of 1.458 — this is suppressing K. Lierse S.K.'s projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 K. Lierse S.K. games / 17 Deinze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 37% | Draw 28% | Deinze 35%. Fair-value odds: K. Lierse S.K. 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Deinze 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates K. Lierse S.K. as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on K. Lierse S.K. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.31 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: K. Lierse S.K. 75% | Deinze 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: K. Lierse S.K. vs Deinze | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Herman Vanderpoortenstadion • Kick-off: Friday 4 Feb 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 37% | Draw 28% | Deinze 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 68% | xG K. Lierse S.K. 1.68 / Deinze 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.037 / def 1.284 | Deinze attack 0.808 / def 1.458 | league avg home 1.111 / away 1.566 • Poisson stance: K. Lierse S.K. (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Deinze xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does K. Lierse S.K. vs Deinze kick off?
K. Lierse S.K. vs Deinze kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 4 February 2022 at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion.
What was the final score in K. Lierse S.K. vs Deinze?
K. Lierse S.K. 1 - 1 Deinze.
Where is K. Lierse S.K. vs Deinze being played?
The match is being played at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion.
What competition is K. Lierse S.K. vs Deinze part of?
K. Lierse S.K. vs Deinze is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win K. Lierse S.K. vs Deinze?
Our statistical model gives K. Lierse S.K. a 37% chance of winning, Deinze a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making K. Lierse S.K. the favourite.
Will both teams score in K. Lierse S.K. vs Deinze?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both K. Lierse S.K. and Deinze will score (BTTS).
Will K. Lierse S.K. vs Deinze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between K. Lierse S.K. and Deinze?
Record (2 meetings): K. Lierse S.K. 0W | Draws 2 | Deinze 0W.
What form are K. Lierse S.K. and Deinze in?
K. Lierse S.K. (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-D-W. Deinze (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates K. Lierse S.K.'s attack at 1.04x the league average against Deinze's defence at 1.46x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Deinze's attack versus K. Lierse S.K.'s defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
K. Lierse S.K. Win
37%
2.70
28%
3.52
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Total xG
3.31
1.62
Deinze xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.13
Clean Sheet
20%
5.08
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
7%
13.74
6%
15.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.0 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.0 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.4 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for K. Lierse S.K. vs Deinze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are K. Lierse S.K. and Deinze expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for K. Lierse S.K. and 1.62 for Deinze, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for K. Lierse S.K. vs Deinze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
K. Lierse S.K.'s recent record stands at 5W 6D 6L from 17 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for K. Lierse S.K. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Deinze, meanwhile, have gone 5W 9D 3L across 17 games — 1.41 PPG, with D-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Deinze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: K. Lierse S.K. on 1.24 PPG, Deinze on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, K. Lierse S.K. have managed 3W 3D 2L from 8 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Deinze's away record stands at 1W 5D 2L across 8 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.41 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Deinze's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, K. Lierse S.K. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
K. Lierse S.K. are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Deinze are on 1.71 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: K. Lierse S.K. have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games; Deinze in 76%.
Last 17 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
K. Lierse S.K.
Blended
Deinze
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are K. Lierse S.K. and Deinze in coming into this match?
K. Lierse S.K. have gone 5W 6D 6L in their last 17 games (1.24 PPG), while Deinze have gone 5W 9D 3L in their last 17 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — K. Lierse S.K. at home or Deinze away?
K. Lierse S.K.'s home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — K. Lierse S.K. at home: 1.50 PPG; Deinze away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 September 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Deinze have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Jan 2024, when Deinze won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
K. Lierse S.K.'s record when hosting Deinze specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
K. Lierse S.K.
3
Draws
4
Deinze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between K. Lierse S.K. and Deinze?
From 9 meetings on record, K. Lierse S.K. have won 2, Deinze have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did K. Lierse S.K. and Deinze last play each other?
They last met on 1 September 2024, when K. Lierse S.K. 0-1 Deinze.
Who has won more matches between K. Lierse S.K. and Deinze?
Deinze have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
K. Lierse S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Deinze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — K. Lierse S.K. at 75%, Deinze at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for K. Lierse S.K. and 62% for Deinze. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 62% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = K. Lierse S.K. home games / Deinze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when K. Lierse S.K. play Deinze?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of K. Lierse S.K.'s games and 75% of Deinze's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is K. Lierse S.K. vs Deinze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of K. Lierse S.K.'s matches and 62% of Deinze's.
Do K. Lierse S.K. and Deinze tend to score early?
K. Lierse S.K. have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Deinze in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
K. Lierse S.K. and Deinze share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
K. Lierse S.K. and Deinze finished level at 1-1 at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting K. Lierse S.K. 1.68 xG and Deinze 1.62 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.04 / defence 1.28 against Deinze attack 0.81 / defence 1.46, drawn from 18/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it K. Lierse S.K. 37% | Draw 28% | Deinze 35%, with K. Lierse S.K. to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 74% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (K. Lierse S.K. 76%, Deinze 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 76%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Deinze's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — K. Lierse S.K. 1.24 PPG, Deinze 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Deinze (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.