Francs Borains 1-2 Club Brugge II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Club Brugge II at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Francs Borains vs Club Brugge II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Club Brugge II travel to Stade Robert Urbain to take on Francs Borains in Challenger Pro League (matchday 13). The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 December 2024 at 18:15 UK time.
Form Guide
Francs Borains — last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Francs Borains's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 8L across their last 10 home games (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Club Brugge II have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Club Brugge II have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Club Brugge II are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Francs Borains's games and 90% of Club Brugge II's (from Francs Borains's last 10 home games and Club Brugge II's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Francs Borains, 1 for Club Brugge II and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 Feb 2024, ended Francs Borains 2–2 Club Brugge II — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Francs Borains trading profile (last 42 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Club Brugge II trading profile (last 42 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Francs Borains 52% versus Club Brugge II 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Francs Borains 67% | Club Brugge II 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Francs Borains 0.99 xG and Club Brugge II 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Francs Borains attack 0.696 / defence 1.097 | Club Brugge II attack 0.934 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.447. Francs Borains's attack rating of 0.696 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.99. Data: built from Francs Borains's last 42 games and Club Brugge II's last 42.
Result probabilities: Francs Borains 25% | Draw 26% | Club Brugge II 49%. Fair-value odds: Francs Borains 3.96 | Draw 3.82 | Club Brugge II 2.06. Club Brugge II hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Club Brugge II as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Club Brugge II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — low conviction — though recent form (Francs Borains's last 10 home games and Club Brugge II's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Francs Borains 60% (last 10 home games) | Club Brugge II 90% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Francs Borains vs Club Brugge II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 13 | Venue: Stade Robert Urbain • Kick-off: Sunday 1 December 2024 at 18:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Francs Borains 25% | Draw 26% | Club Brugge II 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Francs Borains 0.99 / Club Brugge II 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Francs Borains attack 0.696 / def 1.097 | Club Brugge II attack 0.934 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.447 • Poisson stance: Club Brugge II (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Francs Borains xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Club Brugge II xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Francs Borains vs Club Brugge II FAQs
What time does Francs Borains vs Club Brugge II kick off?
Francs Borains vs Club Brugge II kicked off at 18:15 UK time on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Stade Robert Urbain.
What was the final score in Francs Borains vs Club Brugge II?
Francs Borains 1 - 2 Club Brugge II.
Where is Francs Borains vs Club Brugge II being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Urbain.
What competition is Francs Borains vs Club Brugge II part of?
Francs Borains vs Club Brugge II is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 13) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Francs Borains vs Club Brugge II?
Our statistical model gives Francs Borains a 25% chance of winning, Club Brugge II a 49% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Club Brugge II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Francs Borains vs Club Brugge II?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Francs Borains and Club Brugge II will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Francs Borains vs Club Brugge II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Francs Borains's attack rating (0.70) and Club Brugge II's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Club Brugge II's attack versus Francs Borains's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Francs Borains's last 42 games and Club Brugge II's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Club Brugge II Win
25%
3.96
26%
3.82
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Francs Borains xG
Total xG
2.47
1.48
Club Brugge II xG
3.96
25%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
6%
17.41
18%
5.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 12.5 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Francs Borains vs Club Brugge II Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Francs Borains vs Club Brugge II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Francs Borains and Club Brugge II expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Francs Borains and 1.48 for Club Brugge II, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Francs Borains vs Club Brugge II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, Francs Borains have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 12W 6D 24L record — L-D-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Club Brugge II's form line: 15W 8D 19L from 42 games, 1.26 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Francs Borains on 1.00 PPG, Club Brugge II on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Francs Borains have posted 0.90 PPG from their last 20 home games (5W 3D 12L).
On the road, Club Brugge II have gone 8W 4D 8L from their last 20 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Club Brugge II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Francs Borains are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Club Brugge II are on 1.38 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Francs Borains
Blended
Club Brugge II
Blended
Francs Borains (Home) vs Club Brugge II (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Francs Borains
Blended
Club Brugge II
Blended
❓ Francs Borains vs Club Brugge II Form FAQs
What form are Francs Borains and Club Brugge II in coming into this match?
Francs Borains have gone 12W 6D 24L in their last 42 games (1.00 PPG), while Club Brugge II have gone 15W 8D 19L in their last 42 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Francs Borains at home or Club Brugge II away?
Club Brugge II's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Francs Borains at home: 0.90 PPG; Club Brugge II away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was on 20 December 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Francs Borains's record when hosting Club Brugge II specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Francs Borains
2
Draws
3
Club Brugge II
Recent Meetings
❓ Francs Borains vs Club Brugge II H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and Club Brugge II?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Francs Borains have won 1, Club Brugge II have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Francs Borains and Club Brugge II last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 December 2025: Francs Borains 1-0 Club Brugge II.
Who has won more matches between Francs Borains and Club Brugge II?
Club Brugge II have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Club Brugge II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Francs Borains 50%, Club Brugge II 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Francs Borains and 70% for Club Brugge II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Francs Borains have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Francs Borains home games / Club Brugge II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Francs Borains vs Club Brugge II Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Francs Borains and Club Brugge II matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Francs Borains's games and 65% of Club Brugge II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Francs Borains and Club Brugge II matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Francs Borains's matches and 70% of Club Brugge II's.
Do Francs Borains and Club Brugge II matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Francs Borains's recent matches and 75% of Club Brugge II's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Club Brugge II edge out Francs Borains 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Club Brugge II beat Francs Borains 1-2 at Stade Robert Urbain, Regular Season - 13, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Francs Borains 0.99 xG and Club Brugge II 1.48 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Francs Borains attack 0.70 / defence 1.10 against Club Brugge II attack 0.93 / defence 0.95, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Francs Borains 25% | Draw 26% | Club Brugge II 49%, with Club Brugge II to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Francs Borains 67%, Club Brugge II 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Francs Borains's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Club Brugge II's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Francs Borains 1.00 PPG, Club Brugge II 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Club Brugge II win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.