Dender 1-0 Deinze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Deinze at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dender vs Deinze encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dender host Deinze at Walleken Terrain 1 in Challenger Pro League, Relegation Round - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 10 March 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dender stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dender, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dender at Walleken Terrain 1 this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Dender are significantly better at Walleken Terrain 1 than their overall form suggests.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Deinze have recorded 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Deinze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, Deinze have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Deinze — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Dender, 1 for Deinze and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2023, ended 0–1 with Deinze winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Dender trading profile (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Deinze trading profile (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dender 58% and Deinze 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dender 46% | Deinze 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dender 1.02 xG and Deinze 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dender attack 0.802 / defence 1.363 | Deinze attack 0.719 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.453. Data: 22 Dender games / 50 Deinze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dender 27% | Draw 27% | Deinze 46%. Fair-value odds: Dender 3.70 | Draw 3.70 | Deinze 2.17. Deinze hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Deinze are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Deinze offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Dender 60% | Deinze 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dender vs Deinze | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: Walleken Terrain 1 • Kick-off: Friday 10 Mar 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dender 27% | Draw 27% | Deinze 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Dender 1.02 / Deinze 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Dender attack 0.802 / def 1.363 | Deinze attack 0.719 / def 0.895 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.453 • Poisson stance: Deinze (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Dender xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Deinze xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dender vs Deinze kick off?
Dender vs Deinze kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 10 March 2023 at Walleken Terrain 1.
What was the final score in Dender vs Deinze?
Dender 1 - 0 Deinze.
Where is Dender vs Deinze being played?
The match is being played at Walleken Terrain 1.
What competition is Dender vs Deinze part of?
Dender vs Deinze is a Relegation Round - 3 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Dender vs Deinze?
Our statistical model gives Dender a 27% chance of winning, Deinze a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Deinze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dender vs Deinze?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Dender and Deinze will score (BTTS).
Will Dender vs Deinze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dender and Deinze?
Record (2 meetings): Dender 1W | Draws 0 | Deinze 1W.
What form are Dender and Deinze in?
Dender (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Deinze (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Dender's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Deinze's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, Deinze's attack versus Dender's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Deinze Win
27%
3.68
27%
3.75
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Dender xG
Total xG
2.45
1.43
Deinze xG
3.68
27%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
7%
15.32
17%
6.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 12.3 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dender vs Deinze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Dender and Deinze expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Dender and 1.43 for Deinze, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Dender vs Deinze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dender's recent record stands at 6W 4D 14L from 24 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Dender is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Deinze, meanwhile, have gone 10W 3D 11L across 24 games — 1.38 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Deinze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Deinze by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dender heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Dender have managed 3W 0D 9L from 12 games — 0.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Deinze's away record stands at 4W 2D 6L across 12 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Deinze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dender are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Deinze are on 1.33 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Deinze in 62%.
Last 24 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dender
Blended
Deinze
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dender and Deinze in coming into this match?
Dender have gone 6W 4D 14L in their last 24 games (0.92 PPG), while Deinze have gone 10W 3D 11L in their last 24 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dender at home or Deinze away?
Deinze's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dender at home: 0.75 PPG; Deinze away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2024, when Dender won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dender's record when hosting Deinze specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Dender
1
Draws
2
Deinze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dender and Deinze?
From 6 meetings on record, Dender have won 3, Deinze have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dender and Deinze last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when Dender 3-0 Deinze.
Who has won more matches between Dender and Deinze?
Dender have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Deinze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dender 58%, Deinze 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Dender) and 42% (Deinze).
On the defensive side: Deinze in 33%; Dender have failed to score in 42% of games; Deinze in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dender home games / Deinze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dender play Deinze?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Dender's recent matches and 42% of Deinze's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dender vs Deinze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Dender's recent games and 42% of Deinze's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dender and Deinze tend to score early?
Dender have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Deinze in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dender defy the odds to beat Deinze 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dender beat Deinze 1-0 at Walleken Terrain 1, Relegation Round - 3, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dender 1.02 xG and Deinze 1.43 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Deinze landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dender attack 0.80 / defence 1.36 against Deinze attack 0.72 / defence 0.90, drawn from 22/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dender 27% | Draw 27% | Deinze 46%, with Deinze to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Dender win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dender 46%, Deinze 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dender's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Deinze's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Deinze arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with Dender winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dender (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.