Deinze 3-1 Royal Excel Mouscron – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Royal Excel Mouscron at 39%, yet in-form Deinze provide a compelling counter-argument — this Deinze vs Royal Excel Mouscron fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Challenger Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Royal Excel Mouscron travel to Burgermeester Van De Wiele Stadion to take on Deinze. The game is scheduled for Friday 10 September 2021, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Deinze have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 outings — a 1.67 PPG return. Last five: D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Deinze have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Royal Excel Mouscron stand at 0W 0D 3L from 3 Challenger Pro League matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.33 per game is modest, conceding 2.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.67 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Royal Excel Mouscron have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Deinze are in the better shape of the two on current Challenger Pro League data — 1.67 PPG ahead (1.67 vs 0.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Deinze trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
Royal Excel Mouscron trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 67% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Deinze 67% versus Royal Excel Mouscron 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Deinze 33% | Royal Excel Mouscron 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deinze 1.05 xG and Royal Excel Mouscron 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deinze attack 0.953 / defence 1.086 | Royal Excel Mouscron attack 0.822 / defence 1.425. League average goals — home 0.776 / away 1.474. Royal Excel Mouscron bring a strong defensive rating of 1.425 — this is suppressing Deinze's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Deinze games / 3 Royal Excel Mouscron games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Deinze 26% | Draw 35% | Royal Excel Mouscron 39%. Fair-value odds: Deinze 3.85 | Draw 2.86 | Royal Excel Mouscron 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Royal Excel Mouscron as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Deinze (1.67 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Royal Excel Mouscron offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Deinze 67% | Royal Excel Mouscron 33%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deinze vs Royal Excel Mouscron | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Burgermeester Van De Wiele Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 10 Sep 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deinze 26% | Draw 35% | Royal Excel Mouscron 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 52% | xG Deinze 1.05 / Royal Excel Mouscron 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Deinze attack 0.953 / def 1.086 | Royal Excel Mouscron attack 0.822 / def 1.425 | league avg home 0.776 / away 1.474 • Poisson stance: Royal Excel Mouscron (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Deinze xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Royal Excel Mouscron xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deinze vs Royal Excel Mouscron kick off?
Deinze vs Royal Excel Mouscron kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 10 September 2021 at Burgermeester Van De Wiele Stadion.
What was the final score in Deinze vs Royal Excel Mouscron?
Deinze 3 - 1 Royal Excel Mouscron.
Where is Deinze vs Royal Excel Mouscron being played?
The match is being played at Burgermeester Van De Wiele Stadion.
What competition is Deinze vs Royal Excel Mouscron part of?
Deinze vs Royal Excel Mouscron is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Deinze vs Royal Excel Mouscron?
Our statistical model gives Deinze a 26% chance of winning, Royal Excel Mouscron a 39% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Royal Excel Mouscron the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deinze vs Royal Excel Mouscron?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Deinze and Royal Excel Mouscron will score (BTTS).
Will Deinze vs Royal Excel Mouscron have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deinze and Royal Excel Mouscron?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Deinze and Royal Excel Mouscron in?
Deinze (all comps): 1W-2D-0L in 3 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D. Royal Excel Mouscron (all comps): 0W-0D-3L in 3 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.33 / GA 2.67 | L5 L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Deinze's attack rating (0.95) and Royal Excel Mouscron's defence rating (1.43), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Royal Excel Mouscron's attack versus Deinze's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Royal Excel Mouscron Win
26%
3.85
35%
2.83
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Deinze xG
Total xG
2.37
1.31
Royal Excel Mouscron xG
3.85
26%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
7%
14.34
13%
7.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 12.3 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deinze vs Royal Excel Mouscron?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Deinze and Royal Excel Mouscron expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Deinze and 1.31 for Royal Excel Mouscron, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Deinze vs Royal Excel Mouscron?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Deinze come into this having played 3 games, going 1W 2D 0L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Deinze, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Royal Excel Mouscron sit at 0.00 PPG from 3 outings (0W 0D 3L), a run that reads L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Royal Excel Mouscron, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Deinze carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.67 PPG clear of Royal Excel Mouscron — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Deinze are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Royal Excel Mouscron are on 0.33 scored and 2.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Deinze have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 3 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deinze
Early Season
Royal Excel Mouscron
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Deinze and Royal Excel Mouscron in coming into this match?
Deinze have gone 1W 2D 0L in their last 3 games (1.67 PPG), while Royal Excel Mouscron have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 (0.00 PPG).
Have Deinze or Royal Excel Mouscron been keeping clean sheets recently?
Deinze have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Royal Excel Mouscron in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Deinze and Royal Excel Mouscron runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Deinze's record when hosting Royal Excel Mouscron specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Deinze
1
Draws
1
Royal Excel Mouscron
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deinze and Royal Excel Mouscron?
From 4 meetings on record, Deinze have won 2, Royal Excel Mouscron have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Deinze and Royal Excel Mouscron last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2022, when Royal Excel Mouscron 1-2 Deinze.
Who has won more matches between Deinze and Royal Excel Mouscron?
Deinze have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Deinze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Royal Excel Mouscron are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Deinze 67%, Royal Excel Mouscron 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Deinze) and 67% (Royal Excel Mouscron).
On the defensive side: Deinze keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Royal Excel Mouscron in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deinze home games / Royal Excel Mouscron away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Deinze play Royal Excel Mouscron?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Deinze's recent matches and 33% of Royal Excel Mouscron's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Deinze vs Royal Excel Mouscron usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Deinze's recent games and 67% of Royal Excel Mouscron's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Deinze and Royal Excel Mouscron tend to score early?
Deinze have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Royal Excel Mouscron in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Deinze cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Royal Excel Mouscron.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deinze beat Royal Excel Mouscron 3-1 at Burgermeester Van De Wiele Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deinze 1.05 xG and Royal Excel Mouscron 1.31 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Deinze beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deinze attack 0.95 / defence 1.09 against Royal Excel Mouscron attack 0.82 / defence 1.43, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Deinze 26% | Draw 35% | Royal Excel Mouscron 39%, with Royal Excel Mouscron to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Deinze win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deinze 33%, Royal Excel Mouscron 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Deinze's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Royal Excel Mouscron's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Deinze arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Deinze scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.