Deinze 0-2 Dender – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Deinze at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Deinze vs Dender encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Deinze host Dender at Dakota Arena in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 16 September 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Deinze stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Deinze have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Deinze's home record at Dakota Arena: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dender — All Games: 0W 1D 4L from 5 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Dender have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, Deinze have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Deinze register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, Dender in 60% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Deinze in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
Dender in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Deinze 80% and Dender 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Deinze 60% | Dender 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deinze 1.49 xG and Dender 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deinze attack 1.125 / defence 1.073 | Dender attack 0.699 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.512. Data: 33 Deinze games / 5 Dender games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deinze 45% | Draw 27% | Dender 28%. Fair-value odds: Deinze 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Dender 3.57. Deinze hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Deinze are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Deinze offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Deinze 90% | Dender 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deinze vs Dender | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Dakota Arena • Kick-off: Friday 16 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deinze 45% | Draw 27% | Dender 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Deinze 1.49 / Dender 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Deinze attack 1.125 / def 1.073 | Dender attack 0.699 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.512 • Poisson stance: Deinze (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Deinze xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Dender xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deinze vs Dender kick off?
Deinze vs Dender kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 16 September 2022 at Dakota Arena.
What was the final score in Deinze vs Dender?
Deinze 0 - 2 Dender.
Where is Deinze vs Dender being played?
The match is being played at Dakota Arena.
What competition is Deinze vs Dender part of?
Deinze vs Dender is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Deinze vs Dender?
Our statistical model gives Deinze a 45% chance of winning, Dender a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Deinze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deinze vs Dender?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Deinze and Dender will score (BTTS).
Will Deinze vs Dender have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deinze and Dender?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Deinze and Dender in?
Deinze (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Dender (all comps): 0W-1D-4L in 5 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Deinze's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Dender's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, Dender's attack versus Deinze's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.2%), 2-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Deinze Win
45%
2.23
27%
3.76
28%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Deinze xG
Total xG
2.62
1.14
Dender xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.51
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
14%
6.93
6%
15.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.3 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deinze vs Dender?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Deinze and Dender expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Deinze and 1.14 for Dender, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Deinze vs Dender?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Deinze's recent record stands at 1W 2D 2L from 5 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Deinze, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dender, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 4L across 5 games — 0.20 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Dender, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Deinze by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dender heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Deinze are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Dender are on 0.80 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Deinze have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; Dender in 60%.
Last 5 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deinze
Early Season
Dender
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Deinze and Dender in coming into this match?
Deinze have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 games (1.00 PPG), while Dender have gone 0W 1D 4L in their last 5 (0.20 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Deinze and Dender runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2024, when Dender won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Deinze's record when hosting Dender specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Deinze
1
Draws
3
Dender
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deinze and Dender?
From 6 meetings on record, Deinze have won 2, Dender have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Deinze and Dender last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when Dender 3-0 Deinze.
Who has won more matches between Deinze and Dender?
Dender have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Deinze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Deinze at 80%, Dender at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Deinze) and 40% (Dender).
On the defensive side: Dender in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deinze home games / Dender away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Deinze play Dender?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Deinze's games and 60% of Dender's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Deinze vs Dender usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Deinze's recent games and 40% of Dender's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Deinze and Dender tend to score early?
Deinze have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Dender in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dender cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Deinze.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dender beat Deinze 0-2 at Dakota Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deinze 1.49 xG and Dender 1.14 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Deinze fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Dender outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deinze attack 1.12 / defence 1.07 against Dender attack 0.70 / defence 1.03, drawn from 33/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deinze 45% | Draw 27% | Dender 28%, with Deinze to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Dender win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deinze 60%, Dender 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Deinze's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Dender's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Deinze arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.20. Form was overturned, with Dender winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Deinze managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Dender scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.