WSG Wattens 1-3 Red Bull Salzburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Red Bull Salzburg travel to Tivoli Stadion Tirol to take on WSG Wattens. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 September 2021, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, WSG Wattens stand at 0W 5D 1L from 6 Bundesliga matches — 0.83 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.17 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. WSG Wattens have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
WSG Wattens's form when playing at home: 0W 3D 0L across 3 games at Tivoli Stadion Tirol this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Red Bull Salzburg — All Games: 6W 0D 0L from 6 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.67 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Red Bull Salzburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Red Bull Salzburg have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 away fixtures this term (3.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 3 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Red Bull Salzburg's 3.00 PPG return is 2.17 points per game ahead of WSG Wattens's 0.83 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
WSG Wattens in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
Red Bull Salzburg in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — WSG Wattens 83% and Red Bull Salzburg 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 33% | Red Bull Salzburg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 0.75 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.734 / defence 1.031 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.950 / defence 0.840. League average goals — home 1.220 / away 1.190. WSG Wattens's attack strength of 0.734 is below the league average — the 0.75 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 WSG Wattens games / 6 Red Bull Salzburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 20% | Draw 38% | Red Bull Salzburg 42%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 5.00 | Draw 2.63 | Red Bull Salzburg 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 38% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 38% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Red Bull Salzburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.92 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: WSG Wattens 67% | Red Bull Salzburg 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 20% | Draw 38% | Red Bull Salzburg 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 40% | xG WSG Wattens 0.75 / Red Bull Salzburg 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 0.734 / def 1.031 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.950 / def 0.840 | league avg home 1.220 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Red Bull Salzburg xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg?
WSG Wattens 1 - 3 Red Bull Salzburg.
Where is WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 20% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 42% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both WSG Wattens and Red Bull Salzburg will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Red Bull Salzburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are WSG Wattens and Red Bull Salzburg in?
WSG Wattens (all comps): 0W-5D-1L in 6 | 0.83 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.17 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 6W-0D-0L in 6 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.67 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
WSG Wattens's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Red Bull Salzburg's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.75. The same calculation in reverse, Red Bull Salzburg's attack versus WSG Wattens's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.5%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
20%
5.04
38%
2.60
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
1.92
1.17
Red Bull Salzburg xG
5.04
20%
Home win
2.60
38%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
47%
2.12
Win to Nil
6%
16.14
20%
5.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 17.1 | 10.0 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.9 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.17 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
WSG Wattens come into this having played 6 games, going 0W 5D 1L for 0.83 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for WSG Wattens, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Red Bull Salzburg sit at 3.00 PPG from 6 outings (6W 0D 0L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Red Bull Salzburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.17 PPG clear of WSG Wattens — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
WSG Wattens's home form reads 0W 3D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Red Bull Salzburg have taken 3.00 points per game from 3 outings (3W 0D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
WSG Wattens are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 2.67 scored and 0.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: WSG Wattens have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Early Season
Red Bull Salzburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are WSG Wattens and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 0W 5D 1L in their last 6 games (0.83 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 6W 0D 0L in their last 6 (3.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or Red Bull Salzburg away?
Red Bull Salzburg's away record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 1.00 PPG; Red Bull Salzburg away: 3.00 PPG.
Have WSG Wattens or Red Bull Salzburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
WSG Wattens have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Red Bull Salzburg in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between WSG Wattens and Red Bull Salzburg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 23 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Dec 2021, when Red Bull Salzburg won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
WSG Wattens's record when hosting Red Bull Salzburg specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
WSG Wattens
2
Draws
7
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Red Bull Salzburg?
From 10 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 1, Red Bull Salzburg have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2025, when Red Bull Salzburg 2-3 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and Red Bull Salzburg?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
WSG Wattens see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — WSG Wattens 67%, Red Bull Salzburg 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for WSG Wattens and 33% for Red Bull Salzburg.
On the defensive side: WSG Wattens keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Red Bull Salzburg in 67%; WSG Wattens have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when WSG Wattens play Red Bull Salzburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of WSG Wattens's recent matches and 33% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of WSG Wattens's recent games and 33% of Red Bull Salzburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do WSG Wattens and Red Bull Salzburg tend to score early?
WSG Wattens have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Red Bull Salzburg in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Red Bull Salzburg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over WSG Wattens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg beat WSG Wattens 1-3 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Regular Season - 7, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 0.75 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.17 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Red Bull Salzburg outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.73 / defence 1.03 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.95 / defence 0.84, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 20% | Draw 38% | Red Bull Salzburg 42%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 33%, Red Bull Salzburg 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.83. That form edge translated into the three points. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.