WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates WSG Wattens at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
WSG Wattens and Grazer AK meet at Tivoli Stadion Tirol in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
WSG Wattens have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. WSG Wattens have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
WSG Wattens's home record at Tivoli Stadion Tirol: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Grazer AK's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Grazer AK have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Grazer AK's away record: 2W 0D 8L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for WSG Wattens, 1.10 for Grazer AK — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: WSG Wattens 1W, Grazer AK 3W, 4D.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 0–4 with Grazer AK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
WSG Wattens half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Grazer AK half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — WSG Wattens 57% versus Grazer AK 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 51% | Grazer AK 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.94 xG and Grazer AK 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.804 / defence 1.148 | Grazer AK attack 0.664 / defence 1.478. League average goals — home 1.628 / away 1.158. Grazer AK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.478 — this is suppressing WSG Wattens's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 WSG Wattens games / 27 Grazer AK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 61% | Draw 23% | Grazer AK 16%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | Grazer AK 6.25. The model has a clear lean to WSG Wattens (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is WSG Wattens at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: WSG Wattens 60% | Grazer AK 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 61% | Draw 23% | Grazer AK 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 51% | xG WSG Wattens 1.94 / Grazer AK 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 0.804 / def 1.148 | Grazer AK attack 0.664 / def 1.478 | league avg home 1.628 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: WSG Wattens (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Grazer AK xG
51%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK kick off?
WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 24 October 2026 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
Where is WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK part of?
WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 61% chance of winning, Grazer AK a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making WSG Wattens the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both WSG Wattens and Grazer AK will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Grazer AK?
Record (8 meetings): WSG Wattens 1W | Draws 4 | Grazer AK 3W.
What form are WSG Wattens and Grazer AK in?
WSG Wattens (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Grazer AK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates WSG Wattens's attack at 0.80x the league average against Grazer AK's defence at 1.48x — combine the two and it projects 1.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Grazer AK's attack (0.66x) against WSG Wattens's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
WSG Wattens Win
61%
1.64
23%
4.27
16%
6.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
2.82
0.88
Grazer AK xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
6.43
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
14%
6.92
Win to Nil
25%
3.96
2%
44.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 10.2 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and Grazer AK expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 0.88 for Grazer AK, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 37 outings, WSG Wattens have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 12W 11D 14L record — D-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for WSG Wattens, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Grazer AK's form line: 10W 11D 16L from 37 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Grazer AK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for WSG Wattens against 1.11 for Grazer AK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, WSG Wattens have posted 1.50 PPG from 18 outings (7W 6D 5L).
On the road, Grazer AK have gone 3W 3D 12L from 18 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.11 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Grazer AK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, WSG Wattens come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
WSG Wattens are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Grazer AK are on 1.19 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Early Season
Grazer AK
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are WSG Wattens and Grazer AK in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 12W 11D 14L in their last 37 games (1.27 PPG), while Grazer AK have gone 10W 11D 16L in their last 37 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or Grazer AK away?
WSG Wattens's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 1.50 PPG; Grazer AK away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Grazer AK have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Grazer AK won 1-5 on 21 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, WSG Wattens have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Grazer AK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
WSG Wattens
4
Draws
3
Grazer AK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Grazer AK?
From 8 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 1, Grazer AK have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and Grazer AK last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Grazer AK 4-0 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and Grazer AK?
Grazer AK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Grazer AK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — WSG Wattens 67%, Grazer AK 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (WSG Wattens) and 56% (Grazer AK).
On the defensive side: Grazer AK in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / Grazer AK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when WSG Wattens play Grazer AK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of WSG Wattens's recent matches and 39% of Grazer AK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of WSG Wattens's recent games and 56% of Grazer AK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do WSG Wattens and Grazer AK tend to score early?
WSG Wattens have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Grazer AK in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.