WSG Wattens 0-2 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Austria Vienna at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as WSG Wattens face Austria Vienna.

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Match Analysis

WSG Wattens host Austria Vienna at Tivoli Stadion Tirol in Bundesliga (matchday 11). Kick-off is Sunday 22 October 2023 at 14:30 UK time.

Form Guide

WSG Wattens — last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, WSG Wattens have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Austria Vienna stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Austria Vienna's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: WSG Wattens 0.50 PPG, Austria Vienna 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from WSG Wattens's last 10 home games and Austria Vienna's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

Trading Patterns

WSG Wattens in-play and half-time data (last 42 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 36% of games.

Austria Vienna in-play and half-time data (last 42 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — WSG Wattens 60% and Austria Vienna 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 57% | Austria Vienna 71%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: WSG Wattens surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Austria Vienna have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 42% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.54 xG and Austria Vienna 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 1.062 / defence 1.387 | Austria Vienna attack 0.817 / defence 1.200. League average goals — home 1.212 / away 1.390. WSG Wattens's defence rating of 1.387 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Austria Vienna's projected output up. Data: built from WSG Wattens's last 32 games and Austria Vienna's last 32.

Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 35% | Draw 29% | Austria Vienna 36%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 2.86 | Draw 3.48 | Austria Vienna 2.75. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.54 / 1.58) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Austria Vienna as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (WSG Wattens's last 10 home games and Austria Vienna's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: WSG Wattens 70% (last 10 home games) | Austria Vienna 70% (last 10 away games).

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