WSG Wattens 0-2 Austria Lustenau – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates WSG Wattens at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

Austria Lustenau travel to Tivoli Stadion Tirol to take on WSG Wattens in Bundesliga (matchday 18). The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 February 2024 at 13:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, WSG Wattens have gone 2W 0D 8L — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.

WSG Wattens at home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Austria Lustenau stand at 0W 1D 9L — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

Austria Lustenau's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 exceeds their overall 0.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

WSG Wattens are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.50 PPG ahead (0.60 vs 0.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for WSG Wattens, 2 for Austria Lustenau and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.2 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 17 Sep 2023, ended WSG Wattens 3–2 Austria Lustenau — a WSG Wattens win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

WSG Wattens in-play tendencies (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

Austria Lustenau in-play tendencies (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 39% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — WSG Wattens 57% versus Austria Lustenau 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 55% | Austria Lustenau 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.57 xG and Austria Lustenau 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 1.088 / defence 1.276 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.715 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.189. Austria Lustenau's attack rating of 0.715 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.08. WSG Wattens's defence rating of 1.276 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Austria Lustenau's projected output up. Data: built from WSG Wattens's last 39 games and Austria Lustenau's last 39.

Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 48% | Draw 26% | Austria Lustenau 26%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 2.08 | Draw 3.78 | Austria Lustenau 3.92. WSG Wattens hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates WSG Wattens as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on WSG Wattens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: WSG Wattens 80% (last 10 home games) | Austria Lustenau 30% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights