Wolfsberger AC 1-1 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wolfsberger AC at 48%, yet in-form SCR Altach provide a compelling counter-argument — this Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Relegation Group - 24 as Wolfsberger AC welcome SCR Altach to Lavanttal-Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 March 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Wolfsberger AC — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wolfsberger AC at Lavanttal-Arena this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Wolfsberger AC are significantly better at Lavanttal-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SCR Altach have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SCR Altach away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SCR Altach — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Wolfsberger AC have won 2, SCR Altach 3, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 8 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.6 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 1–3 with SCR Altach winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Wolfsberger AC in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
SCR Altach in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wolfsberger AC 64% versus SCR Altach 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 62% | SCR Altach 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.49 xG and SCR Altach 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.093 / defence 1.126 | SCR Altach attack 0.771 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: 44 Wolfsberger AC games / 44 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 48% | Draw 28% | SCR Altach 25%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | SCR Altach 4.00. Wolfsberger AC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wolfsberger AC are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SCR Altach (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Wolfsberger AC 70% | SCR Altach 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 24 | Venue: Lavanttal-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Mar 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 48% | Draw 28% | SCR Altach 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.49 / SCR Altach 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.093 / def 1.126 | SCR Altach attack 0.771 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
1.00
SCR Altach xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Lavanttal-Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach?
Wolfsberger AC 1 - 1 SCR Altach.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal-Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach is a Relegation Group - 24 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 48% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach?
Record (8 meetings): Wolfsberger AC 2W | Draws 3 | SCR Altach 3W.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach in?
Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. SCR Altach (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Wolfsberger AC's attack at 1.09x the league average against SCR Altach's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SCR Altach's attack versus Wolfsberger AC's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
48%
2.09
28%
3.62
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
2.48
1.00
SCR Altach xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
18%
5.67
6%
17.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.4 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.00 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 55 outings, Wolfsberger AC have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 23W 12D 20L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SCR Altach's form line: 13W 19D 23L from 55 games, 1.05 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-W. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Wolfsberger AC are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SCR Altach.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Wolfsberger AC have posted 1.56 PPG from 27 outings (12W 6D 9L).
On the road, SCR Altach have gone 5W 6D 16L from 27 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wolfsberger AC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 0.98 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
SCR Altach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 23W 12D 20L in their last 55 games (1.47 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 13W 19D 23L in their last 55 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or SCR Altach away?
Wolfsberger AC's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 1.56 PPG; SCR Altach away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 4 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 May 2026, when Wolfsberger AC won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wolfsberger AC's record when hosting SCR Altach specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Wolfsberger AC
4
Draws
3
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach?
From 10 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, SCR Altach have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when SCR Altach 1-4 Wolfsberger AC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
SCR Altach see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolfsberger AC 67%, SCR Altach 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Wolfsberger AC) and 44% (SCR Altach). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SCR Altach in 59%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play SCR Altach?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Wolfsberger AC's recent matches and 33% of SCR Altach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Wolfsberger AC's matches and 44% of SCR Altach's.
Do Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, SCR Altach in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach finished level at 1-1 at Lavanttal-Arena, Relegation Group - 24, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.49 xG and SCR Altach 1.00 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 1.09 / defence 1.13 against SCR Altach attack 0.77 / defence 1.01, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 48% | Draw 28% | SCR Altach 25%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 62%, SCR Altach 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
SCR Altach's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Wolfsberger AC arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.