Wolfsberger AC 0-0 Ried – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wolfsberger AC at 50%, yet in-form Ried provide a compelling counter-argument — this Wolfsberger AC vs Ried fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Relegation Group - 26 as Wolfsberger AC welcome Ried to Lavanttal-Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 April 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Wolfsberger AC have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wolfsberger AC have posted 3W 4D 3L at Lavanttal-Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Wolfsberger AC are significantly better at Lavanttal-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Ried — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ried, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Ried have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Ried's 1.40 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Wolfsberger AC's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Wolfsberger AC, 3 for Ried and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with Ried winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Wolfsberger AC trading profile (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Ried trading profile (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wolfsberger AC 68% and Ried 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 64% | Ried 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.67 xG and Ried 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.085 / defence 1.112 | Ried attack 0.871 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: 44 Wolfsberger AC games / 22 Ried games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 50% | Draw 26% | Ried 25%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Ried 4.00. Wolfsberger AC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wolfsberger AC are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ried (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Wolfsberger AC 80% | Ried 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs Ried | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 26 | Venue: Lavanttal-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Apr 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 50% | Draw 26% | Ried 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.67 / Ried 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.085 / def 1.112 | Ried attack 0.871 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Ried xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs Ried kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs Ried kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Lavanttal-Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs Ried?
Wolfsberger AC 0 - 0 Ried.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs Ried being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal-Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs Ried part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs Ried is a Relegation Group - 26 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs Ried?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 50% chance of winning, Ried a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs Ried?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and Ried will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs Ried have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Ried?
Record (7 meetings): Wolfsberger AC 3W | Draws 1 | Ried 3W.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Ried in?
Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Ried (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Wolfsberger AC's attack at 1.08x the league average against Ried's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ried's attack versus Wolfsberger AC's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
50%
2.01
26%
3.90
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
2.78
1.11
Ried xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
19%
5.31
Win to Nil
16%
6.12
5%
21.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.5 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs Ried?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and Ried expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.11 for Ried, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs Ried?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wolfsberger AC's recent record stands at 7W 6D 12L from 25 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ried, meanwhile, have gone 10W 4D 11L across 25 games — 1.36 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Ried is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wolfsberger AC on 1.08 PPG, Ried on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Wolfsberger AC have managed 4W 4D 4L from 12 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ried's away record stands at 4W 1D 7L across 12 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Ried are on 1.32 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 25 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
Ried
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Ried in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 7W 6D 12L in their last 25 games (1.08 PPG), while Ried have gone 10W 4D 11L in their last 25 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or Ried away?
Wolfsberger AC's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 1.33 PPG; Ried away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 19 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Wolfsberger AC's record when hosting Ried specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Wolfsberger AC
2
Draws
4
Ried
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Ried?
From 10 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, Ried have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and Ried last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2026, when Ried 2-1 Wolfsberger AC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Wolfsberger AC at 67%, Ried at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Wolfsberger AC and 58% for Ried. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / Ried away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play Ried?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Wolfsberger AC's games and 67% of Ried's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs Ried usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Wolfsberger AC's matches and 58% of Ried's.
Do Wolfsberger AC and Ried tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Ried in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Wolfsberger AC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Lavanttal-Arena, Relegation Group - 26, as Wolfsberger AC and Ried drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.67 xG and Ried 1.11 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Wolfsberger AC fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Ried landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 1.08 / defence 1.11 against Ried attack 0.87 / defence 1.14, drawn from 44/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 50% | Draw 26% | Ried 25%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 64%, Ried 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Ried's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wolfsberger AC 1.08 PPG, Ried 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Ried (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.