Wolfsberger AC 2-1 Lask Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lask Linz at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Wolfsberger AC face Lask Linz.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Lask Linz travel to Lavanttal Arena to take on Wolfsberger AC in Bundesliga (matchday 16). The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 December 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Wolfsberger AC have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Wolfsberger AC have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lask Linz stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Lask Linz away from home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Wolfsberger AC 1.40 PPG, Lask Linz 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Wolfsberger AC's last 10 home games and Lask Linz's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 4 wins for Wolfsberger AC, 2 for Lask Linz and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.7 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 1 Sep 2024, ended Wolfsberger AC 5–1 Lask Linz — a Wolfsberger AC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Wolfsberger AC trading profile (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Lask Linz trading profile (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wolfsberger AC 51% versus Lask Linz 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 51% | Lask Linz 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.27 xG and Lask Linz 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 0.962 / defence 1.087 | Lask Linz attack 1.226 / defence 0.866. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.153. Lask Linz have an above-average attack rating of 1.226, which lifts their away xG to 1.54. Data: built from Wolfsberger AC's last 37 games and Lask Linz's last 37.
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 31% | Draw 26% | Lask Linz 43%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 3.21 | Draw 3.88 | Lask Linz 2.32. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lask Linz as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lask Linz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Wolfsberger AC's last 10 home games and Lask Linz's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Wolfsberger AC 70% (last 10 home games) | Lask Linz 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 16 | Venue: Lavanttal Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 December 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 31% | Draw 26% | Lask Linz 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.27 / Lask Linz 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 0.962 / def 1.087 | Lask Linz attack 1.226 / def 0.866 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Lask Linz xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz FAQs
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Lavanttal Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz?
Wolfsberger AC 2 - 1 Lask Linz.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 16) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 31% chance of winning, Lask Linz a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Wolfsberger AC's attack rating (0.96) and Lask Linz's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lask Linz's attack versus Wolfsberger AC's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Wolfsberger AC's last 37 games and Lask Linz's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (7.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
31%
3.21
26%
3.88
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
2.81
1.54
Lask Linz xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
22%
4.65
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
7%
14.92
12%
8.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.2 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.8 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.5 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.54 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wolfsberger AC's recent record stands at 18W 12D 17L from 47 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-W in the last five.
Lask Linz, meanwhile, have gone 20W 12D 15L across 47 games — 1.53 PPG, with L-D-W-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wolfsberger AC on 1.40 PPG, Lask Linz on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Wolfsberger AC have managed 8W 5D 10L from their last 23 home games — 1.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lask Linz's away record stands at 9W 7D 7L across their last 23 away games, a 1.48 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Lask Linz are on 1.40 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
Lask Linz
Blended
Wolfsberger AC (Home) vs Lask Linz (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
Lask Linz
Blended
❓ Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz Form FAQs
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 18W 12D 17L in their last 47 games (1.40 PPG), while Lask Linz have gone 20W 12D 15L in their last 47 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or Lask Linz away?
Lask Linz's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 1.26 PPG; Lask Linz away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Wolfsberger AC or Lask Linz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wolfsberger AC have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Lask Linz in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2022. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 1 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lask Linz have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Aug 2022, when Lask Linz won Wolfsberger AC 1-5 Lask Linz.
Wolfsberger AC's record when hosting Lask Linz specifically: 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Wolfsberger AC
0
Draws
4
Lask Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Wolfsberger AC have won 6, Lask Linz have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 September 2026: Wolfsberger AC 1-3 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz?
Wolfsberger AC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolfsberger AC 56%, Lask Linz 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Wolfsberger AC) and 48% (Lask Linz).
On the defensive side: Wolfsberger AC have failed to score in 30% of games; Lask Linz in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / Lask Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Wolfsberger AC's games and 56% of Lask Linz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Wolfsberger AC's recent games and 48% of Lask Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Wolfsberger AC's recent matches and 74% of Lask Linz's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Wolfsberger AC defy the odds to beat Lask Linz 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolfsberger AC beat Lask Linz 2-1 at Lavanttal Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.27 xG and Lask Linz 1.54 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 0.96 / defence 1.09 against Lask Linz attack 1.23 / defence 0.87, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 31% | Draw 26% | Lask Linz 43%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Wolfsberger AC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 51%, Lask Linz 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Lask Linz's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wolfsberger AC 1.40 PPG, Lask Linz 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wolfsberger AC win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.