Wolfsberger AC 1-2 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wolfsberger AC at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lavanttal Arena plays host to Wolfsberger AC versus Austria Vienna in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 21 August 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Wolfsberger AC have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W D D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Wolfsberger AC have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Lavanttal Arena, Wolfsberger AC have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Austria Vienna's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Austria Vienna have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Austria Vienna away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Wolfsberger AC, 1.20 for Austria Vienna — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Wolfsberger AC have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Austria Vienna in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Wolfsberger AC — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Austria Vienna — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wolfsberger AC 64% and Austria Vienna 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 69% | Austria Vienna 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.86 xG and Austria Vienna 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 0.955 / defence 1.358 | Austria Vienna attack 0.995 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.615 / away 1.135. Austria Vienna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Wolfsberger AC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Wolfsberger AC games / 26 Austria Vienna games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 46% | Draw 22% | Austria Vienna 32%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 2.17 | Draw 4.55 | Austria Vienna 3.12. Wolfsberger AC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wolfsberger AC at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.39 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Wolfsberger AC 70% | Austria Vienna 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Lavanttal Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Aug 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 46% | Draw 22% | Austria Vienna 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.86 / Austria Vienna 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 0.955 / def 1.358 | Austria Vienna attack 0.995 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.615 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Austria Vienna xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 21 August 2022 at Lavanttal Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna?
Wolfsberger AC 1 - 2 Austria Vienna.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 46% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 32% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna in?
Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Austria Vienna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Wolfsberger AC's attack rating (0.95) and Austria Vienna's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Austria Vienna's attack (0.99x) against Wolfsberger AC's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
The sample (26/26 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
46%
2.20
22%
4.47
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
3.39
1.53
Austria Vienna xG
2.20
46%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
22%
4.63
16%
6.40
Win to Nil
10%
10.18
5%
19.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 9.6 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.53 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 36 outings, Wolfsberger AC have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 14W 7D 15L record — W-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Austria Vienna's form line: 12W 14D 10L from 36 games, 1.39 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Austria Vienna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Wolfsberger AC against 1.39 for Austria Vienna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Wolfsberger AC have posted 1.50 PPG from 18 outings (8W 3D 7L).
On the road, Austria Vienna have gone 5W 6D 7L from 18 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.36 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Austria Vienna in 67%.
Last 36 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Early Season
Austria Vienna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 14W 7D 15L in their last 36 games (1.36 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 12W 14D 10L in their last 36 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or Austria Vienna away?
Wolfsberger AC's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 1.50 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Wolfsberger AC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wolfsberger AC won 0-4 on 11 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wolfsberger AC have gone 2W 0D 4L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Austria Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Wolfsberger AC
1
Draws
5
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, Austria Vienna have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Wolfsberger AC 3-0 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolfsberger AC 67%, Austria Vienna 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Wolfsberger AC) and 44% (Austria Vienna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Austria Vienna in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play Austria Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Wolfsberger AC's games and 56% of Austria Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Wolfsberger AC's matches and 44% of Austria Vienna's.
Do Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Austria Vienna defy the odds to beat Wolfsberger AC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna beat Wolfsberger AC 1-2 at Lavanttal Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.86 xG and Austria Vienna 1.53 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Wolfsberger AC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 0.95 / defence 1.36 against Austria Vienna attack 0.99 / defence 1.20, drawn from 26/26 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 46% | Draw 22% | Austria Vienna 32%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Austria Vienna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 69%, Austria Vienna 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wolfsberger AC 1.36 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.