TSV Hartberg 2-0 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 17 as TSV Hartberg welcome Wolfsberger AC to PROfertil ARENA. Kick-off is set for Sunday 10 December 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, TSV Hartberg have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg's home record at PROfertil ARENA: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wolfsberger AC stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wolfsberger AC's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — TSV Hartberg at 1.80 PPG versus Wolfsberger AC's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, TSV Hartberg have won 2, Wolfsberger AC 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 3–0 with TSV Hartberg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
TSV Hartberg in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Wolfsberger AC in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 52% versus Wolfsberger AC 65%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (TSV Hartberg 62% | Wolfsberger AC 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.55 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 1.097 / defence 1.090 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.972 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.198. Data: 38 TSV Hartberg games / 38 Wolfsberger AC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 44% | Draw 25% | Wolfsberger AC 31%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Wolfsberger AC 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is TSV Hartberg at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: TSV Hartberg 40% | Wolfsberger AC 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Dec 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 44% | Draw 25% | Wolfsberger AC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.55 / Wolfsberger AC 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 1.097 / def 1.090 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.972 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Wolfsberger AC xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 10 December 2023 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC?
TSV Hartberg 2 - 0 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 44% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC?
Record (5 meetings): TSV Hartberg 2W | Draws 1 | Wolfsberger AC 2W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates TSV Hartberg's attack at 1.10x the league average against Wolfsberger AC's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wolfsberger AC's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
44%
2.27
25%
4.02
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.82
1.27
Wolfsberger AC xG
2.27
44%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
12%
8.08
7%
15.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.7 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.27 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
TSV Hartberg's recent record stands at 16W 11D 21L from 48 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wolfsberger AC, meanwhile, have gone 18W 10D 20L across 48 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: TSV Hartberg on 1.23 PPG, Wolfsberger AC on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, TSV Hartberg have managed 9W 5D 10L from 24 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wolfsberger AC's away record stands at 11W 6D 7L across 24 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.54 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC in 65%.
Last 48 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 16W 11D 21L in their last 48 games (1.23 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 18W 10D 20L in their last 48 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Wolfsberger AC's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.33 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 8 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Sep 2023, when TSV Hartberg won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Wolfsberger AC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
TSV Hartberg
2
Draws
3
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 5, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2025, when Wolfsberger AC 1-2 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 54%, Wolfsberger AC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for TSV Hartberg and 67% for Wolfsberger AC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Wolfsberger AC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of TSV Hartberg's games and 58% of Wolfsberger AC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of TSV Hartberg's matches and 67% of Wolfsberger AC's.
Do TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Wolfsberger AC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
TSV Hartberg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Wolfsberger AC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg beat Wolfsberger AC 2-0 at PROfertil ARENA, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.55 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.27 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Wolfsberger AC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 1.10 / defence 1.09 against Wolfsberger AC attack 0.97 / defence 1.09, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 44% | Draw 25% | Wolfsberger AC 31%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 62%, Wolfsberger AC 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.23 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the TSV Hartberg win broke the near-deadlock. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.