Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates Sturm Graz at 45%, yet in-form Rapid Vienna provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Merkur-Arena plays host to Sturm Graz versus Rapid Vienna in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 13 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Sturm Graz have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sturm Graz's form when playing at home: 5W 5D 0L across 10 games at Merkur-Arena this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Rapid Vienna's overall Bundesliga record this term: 9W 0D 1L from 10 games (2.70 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Rapid Vienna's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Rapid Vienna are 0.70 PPG clear of Sturm Graz in recent Bundesliga fixtures (2.70 vs 2.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sturm Graz have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Rapid Vienna in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sturm Graz lead 4W to 5W over the last 10 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2026, ended 1–3 with Rapid Vienna winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Sturm Graz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).

Rapid Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 56% versus Rapid Vienna 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 42% | Rapid Vienna 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.80 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.194 / defence 0.851 | Rapid Vienna attack 1.240 / defence 0.836. League average goals — home 1.806 / away 1.304. Rapid Vienna have an above-average attack strength of 1.240 — the away xG of 1.38 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 31 Sturm Graz games / 31 Rapid Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 45% | Draw 28% | Rapid Vienna 27%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Rapid Vienna 3.70. Sturm Graz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Sturm Graz as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rapid Vienna (2.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.18 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Sturm Graz 60% | Rapid Vienna 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights