Sturm Graz 0-1 Lask Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sturm Graz at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sturm Graz host Lask Linz at Merkur Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 August 2022 at 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Sturm Graz have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Sturm Graz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sturm Graz have posted 7W 2D 1L at Merkur Arena — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lask Linz stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Lask Linz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lask Linz away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sturm Graz at 1.80 PPG versus Lask Linz's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Sturm Graz trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Lask Linz trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sturm Graz 69% and Lask Linz 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 72% | Lask Linz 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.86 xG and Lask Linz 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.285 / defence 0.864 | Lask Linz attack 1.407 / defence 0.873. League average goals — home 1.661 / away 1.145. Sturm Graz carry an above-average attack strength of 1.285 — their λ of 1.86 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Lask Linz have an above-average attack strength of 1.407 — the away xG of 1.39 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 26 Sturm Graz games / 26 Lask Linz games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 48% | Draw 23% | Lask Linz 29%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 2.08 | Draw 4.35 | Lask Linz 3.45. Sturm Graz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sturm Graz at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.26 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Sturm Graz 70% | Lask Linz 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Aug 2022, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 48% | Draw 23% | Lask Linz 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Sturm Graz 1.86 / Lask Linz 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.285 / def 0.864 | Lask Linz attack 1.407 / def 0.873 | league avg home 1.661 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Lask Linz xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz kick off?
Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 20 August 2022 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz?
Sturm Graz 0 - 1 Lask Linz.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz part of?
Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 48% chance of winning, Lask Linz a 29% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Sturm Graz and Lask Linz will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Lask Linz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sturm Graz and Lask Linz in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Lask Linz (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sturm Graz's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Lask Linz's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.86. The same calculation in reverse, Lask Linz's attack versus Sturm Graz's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (26/26 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
48%
2.06
23%
4.36
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
3.26
1.39
Lask Linz xG
2.06
48%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
15%
6.46
Win to Nil
12%
8.30
4%
22.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.0 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and Lask Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.39 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sturm Graz come into this having played 36 games, going 18W 10D 8L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Sturm Graz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Lask Linz sit at 1.28 PPG from 36 outings (11W 13D 12L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Lask Linz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sturm Graz carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Lask Linz — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sturm Graz's home form reads 11W 4D 3L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Lask Linz have taken 0.94 points per game from 18 outings (3W 8D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Lask Linz are on 1.53 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sturm Graz have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Lask Linz in 61%.
Last 36 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Early Season
Lask Linz
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and Lask Linz in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 18W 10D 8L in their last 36 games (1.78 PPG), while Lask Linz have gone 11W 13D 12L in their last 36 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or Lask Linz away?
Sturm Graz's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 2.06 PPG; Lask Linz away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sturm Graz and Lask Linz runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Sturm Graz's record when hosting Lask Linz specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sturm Graz
3
Draws
2
Lask Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Lask Linz?
From 10 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 5, Lask Linz have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and Lask Linz last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when Sturm Graz 1-1 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and Lask Linz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sturm Graz at 67%, Lask Linz at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Sturm Graz and 50% for Lask Linz. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lask Linz in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / Lask Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play Lask Linz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Sturm Graz's games and 67% of Lask Linz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Sturm Graz's matches and 50% of Lask Linz's.
Do Sturm Graz and Lask Linz tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Lask Linz in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lask Linz defy the odds to beat Sturm Graz 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz beat Sturm Graz 0-1 at Merkur Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.86 xG and Lask Linz 1.39 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sturm Graz fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.28 / defence 0.86 against Lask Linz attack 1.41 / defence 0.87, drawn from 26/26 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 48% | Draw 23% | Lask Linz 29%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Lask Linz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 72%, Lask Linz 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Lask Linz's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.28. Form was overturned, with Lask Linz winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward. Lask Linz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.