Sturm Graz 3-1 Austria Klagenfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sturm Graz at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Merkur Arena plays host to Sturm Graz versus Austria Klagenfurt in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 20 March 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Sturm Graz's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sturm Graz's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Merkur Arena this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Sturm Graz are significantly better at Merkur Arena than their overall form suggests.
Austria Klagenfurt (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Austria Klagenfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Klagenfurt's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Sturm Graz, 1.50 for Austria Klagenfurt — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sturm Graz have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Austria Klagenfurt in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Sturm Graz — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Austria Klagenfurt — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sturm Graz 65% and Austria Klagenfurt 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sturm Graz 78% | Austria Klagenfurt 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.87 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.227 / defence 1.190 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.840 / defence 1.321. League average goals — home 1.152 / away 1.236. Austria Klagenfurt bring a strong defensive rating of 1.321 — this is suppressing Sturm Graz's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Sturm Graz games / 22 Austria Klagenfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 52% | Draw 23% | Austria Klagenfurt 25%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | Austria Klagenfurt 4.00. Sturm Graz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.87 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sturm Graz at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.10 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sturm Graz 60% | Austria Klagenfurt 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 2 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Mar 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 52% | Draw 23% | Austria Klagenfurt 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 60% | xG Sturm Graz 1.87 / Austria Klagenfurt 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.227 / def 1.190 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.840 / def 1.321 | league avg home 1.152 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Austria Klagenfurt xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt kick off?
Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 20 March 2022 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Sturm Graz 3 - 1 Austria Klagenfurt.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt part of?
Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt is a Championship Round - 2 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 52% chance of winning, Austria Klagenfurt a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Sturm Graz and Austria Klagenfurt will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Austria Klagenfurt?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sturm Graz and Austria Klagenfurt in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Austria Klagenfurt (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sturm Graz's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Austria Klagenfurt's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.87. Flip it around — Austria Klagenfurt's attack (0.84x) against Sturm Graz's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
52%
1.92
23%
4.42
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
3.10
1.24
Austria Klagenfurt xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
15%
6.48
Win to Nil
15%
6.59
4%
25.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 10.4 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and Austria Klagenfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.24 for Austria Klagenfurt, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sturm Graz come into this having played 23 games, going 10W 7D 6L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-L. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Austria Klagenfurt sit at 1.30 PPG from 23 outings (7W 9D 7L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Austria Klagenfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.61 PPG for Sturm Graz against 1.30 for Austria Klagenfurt. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sturm Graz's home form reads 5W 4D 2L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.73 PPG return.
Away from home, Austria Klagenfurt have taken 1.09 points per game from 11 outings (3W 3D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sturm Graz are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Austria Klagenfurt are on 1.39 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sturm Graz have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Austria Klagenfurt in 65%.
Last 23 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Blended
Austria Klagenfurt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and Austria Klagenfurt in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 10W 7D 6L in their last 23 games (1.61 PPG), while Austria Klagenfurt have gone 7W 9D 7L in their last 23 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or Austria Klagenfurt away?
Sturm Graz's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 1.73 PPG; Austria Klagenfurt away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Sturm Graz go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sturm Graz won 7-0 on 23 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sturm Graz have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Austria Klagenfurt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Sturm Graz
1
Draws
1
Austria Klagenfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Austria Klagenfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 8, Austria Klagenfurt have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and Austria Klagenfurt last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2024, when Sturm Graz 7-0 Austria Klagenfurt.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and Austria Klagenfurt?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 64%, Austria Klagenfurt 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for Sturm Graz and 64% for Austria Klagenfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / Austria Klagenfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play Austria Klagenfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Sturm Graz's games and 54% of Austria Klagenfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of Sturm Graz's matches and 64% of Austria Klagenfurt's.
Do Sturm Graz and Austria Klagenfurt tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Austria Klagenfurt in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sturm Graz cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Austria Klagenfurt.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat Austria Klagenfurt 3-1 at Merkur Arena, Championship Round - 2, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.87 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 1.24 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sturm Graz beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.23 / defence 1.19 against Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.84 / defence 1.32, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 52% | Draw 23% | Austria Klagenfurt 25%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 78%, Austria Klagenfurt 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sturm Graz 1.61 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sturm Graz win broke the near-deadlock. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.09 average — above their attacking norm. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.