SCR Altach 1-1 Red Bull Salzburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 11 as SCR Altach welcome Red Bull Salzburg to CASHPOINT Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 October 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SCR Altach have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SCR Altach have posted 1W 1D 3L at CASHPOINT Arena — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Red Bull Salzburg stand at 10W 0D 0L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Red Bull Salzburg's away record: 5W 0D 0L from 5 road trips in Bundesliga this season (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 3 away clean sheets from 5 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Red Bull Salzburg are 2.10 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
SCR Altach in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Red Bull Salzburg in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 50% versus Red Bull Salzburg 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 50% | Red Bull Salzburg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 0.66 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 2.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.666 / defence 1.404 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.032 / defence 0.753. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.406. SCR Altach's attack strength of 0.666 is below the league average — the 0.66 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Red Bull Salzburg's defence strength of 0.753 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 10 SCR Altach games / 10 Red Bull Salzburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 8% | Draw 25% | Red Bull Salzburg 67%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 12.50 | Draw 4.00 | Red Bull Salzburg 1.49. The model has a clear lean to Red Bull Salzburg (67%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Red Bull Salzburg are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: SCR Altach 60% | Red Bull Salzburg 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: CASHPOINT Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 8% | Draw 25% | Red Bull Salzburg 67% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 45% | xG SCR Altach 0.66 / Red Bull Salzburg 2.04 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.666 / def 1.404 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.032 / def 0.753 | league avg home 1.308 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.66
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
2.04
Red Bull Salzburg xG
45%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at CASHPOINT Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg?
SCR Altach 1 - 1 Red Bull Salzburg.
Where is SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at CASHPOINT Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 8% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 67% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SCR Altach's attack at 0.67x the league average against Red Bull Salzburg's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 0.66 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Red Bull Salzburg's attack versus SCR Altach's defence, projects 2.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.6%), 1-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
8%
12.25
25%
4.04
67%
1.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
0 – 3
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.66
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.69
2.04
Red Bull Salzburg xG
12.25
8%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
1.49
67%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.25
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
13%
7.68
52%
1.93
Win to Nil
1%
94.06
35%
2.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 13.8 | 14.1 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 2.0 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 0.66 expected goals for SCR Altach and 2.04 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 10 outings, SCR Altach have picked up 0.90 PPG on a 2W 3D 5L record — L-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Red Bull Salzburg's form line: 10W 0D 0L from 10 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Red Bull Salzburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Red Bull Salzburg are the form team by 2.10 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SCR Altach.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SCR Altach have posted 0.80 PPG from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L).
On the road, Red Bull Salzburg have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 away games — 3.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SCR Altach are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 2.60 scored and 0.50 conceded.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 games (0.90 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 10W 0D 0L in their last 10 (3.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or Red Bull Salzburg away?
Red Bull Salzburg's away record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 0.80 PPG; Red Bull Salzburg away: 3.00 PPG.
Have SCR Altach or Red Bull Salzburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
SCR Altach have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Red Bull Salzburg in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Mar 2022, when Red Bull Salzburg won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SCR Altach's record when hosting Red Bull Salzburg specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
SCR Altach
5
Draws
5
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg?
From 10 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 0, Red Bull Salzburg have won 5, and 5 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when SCR Altach 1-1 Red Bull Salzburg.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 60%, Red Bull Salzburg 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (SCR Altach) and 40% (Red Bull Salzburg).
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg in 60%; SCR Altach have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play Red Bull Salzburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of SCR Altach's recent matches and 40% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of SCR Altach's recent games and 40% of Red Bull Salzburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Red Bull Salzburg in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at CASHPOINT Arena, Regular Season - 11, as SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 0.66 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 2.04 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Red Bull Salzburg landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.67 / defence 1.40 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.03 / defence 0.75, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 8% | Draw 25% | Red Bull Salzburg 67%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 50%, Red Bull Salzburg 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SCR Altach (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.