SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Austria Vienna travel to Cashpoint-Arena to take on SCR Altach. The game is scheduled for Friday 23 October 2026, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SCR Altach stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. SCR Altach have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SCR Altach at Cashpoint-Arena this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — SCR Altach are significantly better at Cashpoint-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Austria Vienna have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Austria Vienna have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Austria Vienna have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — SCR Altach at 0.80 PPG versus Austria Vienna's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, SCR Altach have won 3, Austria Vienna 4, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2026, ended 2–1 with SCR Altach winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SCR Altach trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Austria Vienna trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 46% versus Austria Vienna 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 43% | Austria Vienna 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 2.02 xG and Austria Vienna 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 1.117 / defence 1.039 | Austria Vienna attack 0.984 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.628 / away 1.158. Data: 27 SCR Altach games / 27 Austria Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 56% | Draw 23% | Austria Vienna 21%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Austria Vienna 4.76. The model has a clear lean to SCR Altach (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.02 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SCR Altach are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SCR Altach 60% | Austria Vienna 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Cashpoint-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 23 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 56% | Draw 23% | Austria Vienna 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 61% | xG SCR Altach 2.02 / Austria Vienna 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 1.117 / def 1.039 | Austria Vienna attack 0.984 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.628 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: SCR Altach (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Austria Vienna xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna kick off?
SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Friday 23 October 2026 at Cashpoint-Arena.
Where is SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Cashpoint-Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna part of?
SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 56% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SCR Altach the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both SCR Altach and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Austria Vienna?
Record (10 meetings): SCR Altach 3W | Draws 3 | Austria Vienna 4W.
What form are SCR Altach and Austria Vienna in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Austria Vienna (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SCR Altach's attack rating (1.12) and Austria Vienna's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 2.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Vienna's attack versus SCR Altach's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SCR Altach Win
56%
1.79
23%
4.29
21%
4.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
3.21
1.18
Austria Vienna xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
4.78
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
13%
7.55
Win to Nil
17%
5.85
3%
36.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for SCR Altach and 1.18 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SCR Altach come into this having played 37 games, going 11W 12D 14L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for SCR Altach, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Austria Vienna sit at 1.35 PPG from 37 outings (15W 5D 17L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Austria Vienna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: SCR Altach on 1.22 PPG, Austria Vienna on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
SCR Altach's home form reads 9W 6D 3L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — SCR Altach are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Austria Vienna have taken 1.56 points per game from 18 outings (9W 1D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
SCR Altach are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.30 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Early Season
Austria Vienna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 11W 12D 14L in their last 37 games (1.22 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 15W 5D 17L in their last 37 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or Austria Vienna away?
SCR Altach's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 1.83 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Dec 2024, when Austria Vienna won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SCR Altach's record when hosting Austria Vienna specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
SCR Altach
3
Draws
4
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Austria Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 3, Austria Vienna have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when SCR Altach 2-1 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 61%, Austria Vienna 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (SCR Altach) and 61% (Austria Vienna).
On the defensive side: SCR Altach keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Austria Vienna in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play Austria Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of SCR Altach's games and 61% of Austria Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of SCR Altach's recent games and 61% of Austria Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.