Ried 0-1 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ried at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ried vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
josko ARENA plays host to Ried versus TSV Hartberg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Sunday 12 February 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ried have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ried, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ried at josko ARENA this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
TSV Hartberg (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Ried. A 0.50 PPG lead over TSV Hartberg (0.90 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Ried have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, TSV Hartberg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Ried 1W, TSV Hartberg 1W, 3D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.4 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 0–2 with TSV Hartberg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Ried — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
TSV Hartberg — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ried 62% and TSV Hartberg 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ried 48% | TSV Hartberg 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ried 1.56 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ried attack 0.965 / defence 1.026 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.852 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.484. Data: 38 Ried games / 38 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ried 44% | Draw 25% | TSV Hartberg 32%. Fair-value odds: Ried 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | TSV Hartberg 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ried are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ried if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ried 70% | TSV Hartberg 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ried vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: josko ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Feb 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ried 44% | Draw 25% | TSV Hartberg 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Ried 1.56 / TSV Hartberg 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Ried attack 0.965 / def 1.026 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.852 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.448 / away 1.484 • Poisson stance: Ried (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Ried xG
Expected Goals
1.30
TSV Hartberg xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ried vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Ried vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 12 February 2023 at josko ARENA.
What was the final score in Ried vs TSV Hartberg?
Ried 0 - 1 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Ried vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at josko ARENA.
What competition is Ried vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Ried vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Ried vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Ried a 44% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ried the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ried vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Ried and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Ried vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and TSV Hartberg?
Record (5 meetings): Ried 1W | Draws 3 | TSV Hartberg 1W.
What form are Ried and TSV Hartberg in?
Ried (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ried's attack rating (0.96) and TSV Hartberg's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — TSV Hartberg's attack (0.85x) against Ried's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ried Win
44%
2.30
25%
4.04
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Ried xG
Total xG
2.86
1.30
TSV Hartberg xG
2.30
44%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
12%
8.42
7%
14.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.6 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ried vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Ried and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Ried and 1.30 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Ried vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ried come into this having played 48 games, going 11W 17D 20L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-L. The sample for Ried is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, TSV Hartberg sit at 0.92 PPG from 48 outings (10W 14D 24L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Ried against 0.92 for TSV Hartberg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Ried's home form reads 8W 10D 5L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.04 PPG overall — Ried are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, TSV Hartberg have taken 0.83 points per game from 23 outings (4W 7D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ried come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ried are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.23 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ried have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ried
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ried and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Ried have gone 11W 17D 20L in their last 48 games (1.04 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 10W 14D 24L in their last 48 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ried at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Ried's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ried at home: 1.48 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
TSV Hartberg go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ried have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Ried
3
Draws
6
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Ried have won 1, TSV Hartberg have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ried and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when TSV Hartberg 2-0 Ried.
Who has won more matches between Ried and TSV Hartberg?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 74% for Ried, 56% for TSV Hartberg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Ried) and 56% (TSV Hartberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ried home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ried play TSV Hartberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Ried's games and 56% of TSV Hartberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ried vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Ried's matches and 56% of TSV Hartberg's.
Do Ried and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Ried have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as TSV Hartberg defy the odds to beat Ried 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg beat Ried 0-1 at josko ARENA, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ried 1.56 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.30 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ried fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ried attack 0.96 / defence 1.03 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.85 / defence 1.12, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ried 44% | Draw 25% | TSV Hartberg 32%, with Ried to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual TSV Hartberg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ried 48%, TSV Hartberg 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ried's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ried 1.04 PPG, TSV Hartberg 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the TSV Hartberg win broke the near-deadlock. Ried (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.