Ried vs TSV Hartberg – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ried at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ried vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Innviertel Arena plays host to Ried versus TSV Hartberg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 29 November 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ried have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Ried, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ried at Innviertel Arena this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Ried are significantly better at Innviertel Arena than their overall form suggests.
TSV Hartberg (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D D W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Ried against 1.40 for TSV Hartberg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
TSV Hartberg hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 7 wins from 10 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2026, ended 2–3 with TSV Hartberg winning.
It is worth noting that TSV Hartberg have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 7 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Ried — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
TSV Hartberg — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ried 58% versus TSV Hartberg 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ried 51% | TSV Hartberg 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ried 1.77 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ried attack 1.056 / defence 0.998 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.040 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.806 / away 1.304. Data: 31 Ried games / 31 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ried 45% | Draw 29% | TSV Hartberg 27%. Fair-value odds: Ried 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | TSV Hartberg 3.70. Ried hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ried are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ried if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ried 70% | TSV Hartberg 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ried vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Innviertel Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ried 45% | Draw 29% | TSV Hartberg 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 64% | xG Ried 1.77 / TSV Hartberg 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Ried attack 1.056 / def 0.998 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.040 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.806 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Ried (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Ried xG
Expected Goals
1.35
TSV Hartberg xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ried vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Ried vs TSV Hartberg is scheduled to kick off at 13:30 on Sunday 29 November 2026 at Innviertel Arena.
Where is Ried vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Innviertel Arena.
What competition is Ried vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Ried vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Ried vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Ried a 45% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ried the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ried vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Ried and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Ried vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and TSV Hartberg?
Record (10 meetings): Ried 1W | Draws 2 | TSV Hartberg 7W.
What form are Ried and TSV Hartberg in?
Ried (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ried's attack rating (1.06) and TSV Hartberg's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — TSV Hartberg's attack (1.04x) against Ried's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ried Win
45%
2.24
29%
3.49
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Ried xG
Total xG
3.12
1.35
TSV Hartberg xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
17%
5.87
Win to Nil
12%
8.67
5%
21.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.5 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ried vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Ried and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Ried and 1.35 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Ried vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ried come into this having played 41 games, going 18W 7D 16L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-W. The sample for Ried is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, TSV Hartberg sit at 1.29 PPG from 41 outings (13W 14D 14L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Ried against 1.29 for TSV Hartberg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Ried's home form reads 13W 3D 4L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.10 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.49 PPG overall — Ried are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, TSV Hartberg have taken 1.45 points per game from 20 outings (7W 8D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ried come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ried are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.34 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ried
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ried and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Ried have gone 18W 7D 16L in their last 41 games (1.49 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 13W 14D 14L in their last 41 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ried at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Ried's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ried at home: 2.10 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
TSV Hartberg go into this on the back of 7 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ried have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Ried
2
Draws
7
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Ried have won 1, TSV Hartberg have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ried and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when TSV Hartberg 3-2 Ried.
Who has won more matches between Ried and TSV Hartberg?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ried 55%, TSV Hartberg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ried) and 45% (TSV Hartberg).
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg in 35%; TSV Hartberg in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ried home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ried play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Ried's recent matches and 50% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ried vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ried's recent games and 45% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ried and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Ried have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.