Ried 2-1 Grazer AK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ried at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ried vs Grazer AK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Innviertel Arena plays host to Ried versus Grazer AK in Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 28. Kick-off: Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Ried's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ried, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ried at Innviertel Arena this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Ried are significantly better at Innviertel Arena than their overall form suggests.
Grazer AK have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Grazer AK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grazer AK's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Grazer AK are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Ried 0W, Grazer AK 1W, 2D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Ried — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Grazer AK — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ried 56% versus Grazer AK 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ried 48% | Grazer AK 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ried 1.20 xG and Grazer AK 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ried attack 0.796 / defence 1.081 | Grazer AK attack 0.838 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Ried's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 22 Ried games / 44 Grazer AK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ried 39% | Draw 30% | Grazer AK 31%. Fair-value odds: Ried 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Grazer AK 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ried are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Grazer AK (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ried if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ried 40% | Grazer AK 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ried vs Grazer AK | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 28 | Venue: Innviertel Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Apr 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ried 39% | Draw 30% | Grazer AK 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Ried 1.20 / Grazer AK 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Ried attack 0.796 / def 1.081 | Grazer AK attack 0.838 / def 1.119 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Ried (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Ried xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Grazer AK xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ried vs Grazer AK kick off?
Ried vs Grazer AK kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 21 April 2026 at Innviertel Arena.
What was the final score in Ried vs Grazer AK?
Ried 2 - 1 Grazer AK.
Where is Ried vs Grazer AK being played?
The match is being played at Innviertel Arena.
What competition is Ried vs Grazer AK part of?
Ried vs Grazer AK is a Relegation Group - 28 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Ried vs Grazer AK?
Our statistical model gives Ried a 39% chance of winning, Grazer AK a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ried the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ried vs Grazer AK?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Ried and Grazer AK will score (BTTS).
Will Ried vs Grazer AK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and Grazer AK?
Record (3 meetings): Ried 0W | Draws 2 | Grazer AK 1W.
What form are Ried and Grazer AK in?
Ried (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Grazer AK (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ried's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Grazer AK's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — Grazer AK's attack (0.84x) against Ried's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 22/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ried Win
39%
2.58
30%
3.30
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Ried xG
Total xG
2.24
1.04
Grazer AK xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
14%
7.30
9%
10.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 11.1 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.3 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ried vs Grazer AK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Ried and Grazer AK expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Ried and 1.04 for Grazer AK, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Ried vs Grazer AK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 27 outings, Ried have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 10W 6D 11L record — W-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Ried is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Grazer AK's form line: 7W 9D 11L from 27 games, 1.11 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D. The sample for Grazer AK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Ried against 1.11 for Grazer AK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ried have posted 1.62 PPG from 13 outings (6W 3D 4L).
On the road, Grazer AK have gone 2W 3D 8L from 13 away games — 0.69 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.11 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Grazer AK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ried come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ried are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Grazer AK are on 1.19 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grazer AK in 63%.
Last 27 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ried
Blended
Grazer AK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ried and Grazer AK in coming into this match?
Ried have gone 10W 6D 11L in their last 27 games (1.33 PPG), while Grazer AK have gone 7W 9D 11L in their last 27 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ried at home or Grazer AK away?
Ried's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ried at home: 1.62 PPG; Grazer AK away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Ried go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ried have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Grazer AK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Ried
2
Draws
1
Grazer AK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and Grazer AK?
From 5 meetings on record, Ried have won 2, Grazer AK have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ried and Grazer AK last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Ried 1-0 Grazer AK.
Who has won more matches between Ried and Grazer AK?
Ried have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Grazer AK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ried 46%, Grazer AK 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Ried) and 54% (Grazer AK).
On the defensive side: Ried keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Ried have failed to score in 31% of games; Grazer AK in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ried home games / Grazer AK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ried play Grazer AK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Ried's recent matches and 46% of Grazer AK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ried vs Grazer AK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Ried's recent games and 54% of Grazer AK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ried and Grazer AK tend to score early?
Ried have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Grazer AK in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ried edge out Grazer AK 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ried beat Grazer AK 2-1 at Innviertel Arena, Relegation Group - 28, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ried 1.20 xG and Grazer AK 1.04 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Ried beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ried attack 0.80 / defence 1.08 against Grazer AK attack 0.84 / defence 1.12, drawn from 22/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ried 39% | Draw 30% | Grazer AK 31%, with Ried to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ried 48%, Grazer AK 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ried's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Grazer AK's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ried 1.33 PPG, Grazer AK 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ried win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.