Ried 3-2 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ried at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ried vs Austria Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ried host Austria Vienna at Josko Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 October 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Ried — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Ried, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ried's home record at Josko Arena: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Ried are significantly better at Josko Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Austria Vienna have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Vienna's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ried at 1.40 PPG versus Austria Vienna's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Austria Vienna, who boast 5 victories compared to 1 for Ried.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2026, ended 0–2 with Austria Vienna winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Austria Vienna have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Ried in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Austria Vienna in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ried 58% versus Austria Vienna 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ried 50% | Austria Vienna 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ried 1.94 xG and Austria Vienna 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ried attack 1.021 / defence 0.943 | Austria Vienna attack 1.046 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.756 / away 1.240. Data: 30 Ried games / 30 Austria Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ried 52% | Draw 27% | Austria Vienna 21%. Fair-value odds: Ried 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Austria Vienna 4.76. Ried hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ried are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ried offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Ried 70% | Austria Vienna 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ried vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Josko Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ried 52% | Draw 27% | Austria Vienna 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Ried 1.94 / Austria Vienna 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Ried attack 1.021 / def 0.943 | Austria Vienna attack 1.046 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.756 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Ried (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Ried xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Austria Vienna xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ried vs Austria Vienna kick off?
Ried vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Josko Arena.
What was the final score in Ried vs Austria Vienna?
Ried 3 - 2 Austria Vienna.
Where is Ried vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Josko Arena.
What competition is Ried vs Austria Vienna part of?
Ried vs Austria Vienna is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Ried vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Ried a 52% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ried the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ried vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Ried and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Ried vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and Austria Vienna?
Record (6 meetings): Ried 1W | Draws 0 | Austria Vienna 5W.
What form are Ried and Austria Vienna in?
Ried (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Austria Vienna (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ried's attack at 1.02x the league average against Austria Vienna's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Vienna's attack versus Ried's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ried Win
52%
1.94
27%
3.69
21%
4.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Ried xG
Total xG
3.17
1.22
Austria Vienna xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
4.70
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
14%
6.99
Win to Nil
15%
6.59
3%
32.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.0 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ried vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Ried and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Ried and 1.22 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Ried vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Ried have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 17W 7D 16L record — W-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Ried is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Austria Vienna's form line: 16W 6D 18L from 40 games, 1.35 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-L. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ried on 1.45 PPG, Austria Vienna on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ried have posted 1.95 PPG from 20 outings (12W 3D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.45 PPG overall — Ried are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Austria Vienna have gone 9W 3D 8L from 20 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ried come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ried are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.30 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ried
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ried and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
Ried have gone 17W 7D 16L in their last 40 games (1.45 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 16W 6D 18L in their last 40 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ried at home or Austria Vienna away?
Ried's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ried at home: 1.95 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ried and Austria Vienna runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Oct 2021, when Austria Vienna won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ried's record when hosting Austria Vienna specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Ried
0
Draws
5
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and Austria Vienna?
From 7 meetings on record, Ried have won 2, Austria Vienna have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ried and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Ried 3-2 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Ried and Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ried 50%, Austria Vienna 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Ried) and 65% (Austria Vienna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 10% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ried home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ried play Austria Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Ried's games and 65% of Austria Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ried vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 45% of Ried's matches and 65% of Austria Vienna's.
Do Ried and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
Ried have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ried edge out Austria Vienna 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ried beat Austria Vienna 3-2 at Josko Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ried 1.94 xG and Austria Vienna 1.22 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Ried beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ried attack 1.02 / defence 0.94 against Austria Vienna attack 1.05 / defence 1.08, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ried 52% | Draw 27% | Austria Vienna 21%, with Ried to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ried 50%, Austria Vienna 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ried's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ried 1.45 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ried win broke the near-deadlock. Ried (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.