Ried 2-1 Admira Wacker – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ried at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ried vs Admira Wacker fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 3 as Ried welcome Admira Wacker to josko ARENA. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 August 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ried stand at 1W 0D 1L from 2 Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 4.00 conceded. However, 4.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Ried have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Admira Wacker have recorded 1W 1D 0L from 2 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Admira Wacker have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Admira Wacker's 2.00 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Ried's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ried 1.40 xG and Admira Wacker 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ried attack 1.049 / defence 1.095 | Admira Wacker attack 0.795 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.205 / away 1.511. Data: 2 Ried games / 2 Admira Wacker games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ried 36% | Draw 33% | Admira Wacker 31%. Fair-value odds: Ried 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | Admira Wacker 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ried are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Admira Wacker (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ried offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ried vs Admira Wacker | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: josko ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Aug 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ried 36% | Draw 33% | Admira Wacker 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 59% | xG Ried 1.40 / Admira Wacker 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Ried attack 1.049 / def 1.095 | Admira Wacker attack 0.795 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.205 / away 1.511 • Poisson stance: Ried (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Ried xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Admira Wacker xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ried vs Admira Wacker kick off?
Ried vs Admira Wacker kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 7 August 2021 at josko ARENA.
What was the final score in Ried vs Admira Wacker?
Ried 2 - 1 Admira Wacker.
Where is Ried vs Admira Wacker being played?
The match is being played at josko ARENA.
What competition is Ried vs Admira Wacker part of?
Ried vs Admira Wacker is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Ried vs Admira Wacker?
Our statistical model gives Ried a 36% chance of winning, Admira Wacker a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Ried the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ried vs Admira Wacker?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Ried and Admira Wacker will score (BTTS).
Will Ried vs Admira Wacker have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and Admira Wacker?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ried and Admira Wacker in?
Ried (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 4.00 | L5 W-L. Admira Wacker (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ried's attack rating (1.05) and Admira Wacker's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Admira Wacker's attack versus Ried's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ried Win
36%
2.81
33%
3.03
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Ried xG
Total xG
2.72
1.31
Admira Wacker xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
10%
10.48
8%
12.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.2 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ried vs Admira Wacker?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Ried and Admira Wacker expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Ried and 1.31 for Admira Wacker, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Ried vs Admira Wacker?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ried come into this having played 2 games, going 1W 0D 1L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-L. It's still early in the season for Ried, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Admira Wacker sit at 2.00 PPG from 2 outings (1W 1D 0L), a run that reads D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Admira Wacker, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Admira Wacker carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Ried — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Ried are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 4.00 conceded per game recently; Admira Wacker are on 2.50 scored and 0.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ried have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Defensively: Admira Wacker in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ried
Early Season
Admira Wacker
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ried and Admira Wacker in coming into this match?
Ried have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Admira Wacker have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have Ried or Admira Wacker been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ried have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Admira Wacker in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ried's record when hosting Admira Wacker specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Ried
1
Draws
1
Admira Wacker
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and Admira Wacker?
From 4 meetings on record, Ried have won 2, Admira Wacker have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ried and Admira Wacker last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2022, when Ried 1-1 Admira Wacker.
Who has won more matches between Ried and Admira Wacker?
Ried have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ried home games / Admira Wacker away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ried play Admira Wacker?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Ried's games and 50% of Admira Wacker's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ried vs Admira Wacker usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Ried's matches and 50% of Admira Wacker's.
Do Ried and Admira Wacker tend to score early?
Ried have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Admira Wacker in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ried edge out Admira Wacker 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ried beat Admira Wacker 2-1 at josko ARENA, Regular Season - 3, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ried 1.40 xG and Admira Wacker 1.31 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ried attack 1.05 / defence 1.09 against Admira Wacker attack 0.80 / defence 1.11, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ried 36% | Draw 33% | Admira Wacker 31%, with Ried to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ried 100%, Admira Wacker 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Admira Wacker arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with Ried winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ried conceded 1 against a 4.00 average — tighter than their form line. Admira Wacker managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.