Red Bull Salzburg 2-1 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Red Bull Salzburg at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Red Bull Salzburg and Rapid Vienna meet at Red Bull Arena in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 3. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 April 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Red Bull Salzburg have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Red Bull Salzburg's home record at Red Bull Arena: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Red Bull Arena. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — Red Bull Salzburg are significantly better at Red Bull Arena than their overall form suggests.
Rapid Vienna (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Rapid Vienna have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.30 for Red Bull Salzburg, 1.90 for Rapid Vienna — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Red Bull Salzburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Rapid Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Red Bull Salzburg 50% versus Rapid Vienna 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Red Bull Salzburg 54% | Rapid Vienna 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Red Bull Salzburg 1.96 xG and Rapid Vienna 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.463 / defence 0.828 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.961 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.151 / away 1.237. Red Bull Salzburg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.463 — their λ of 1.96 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 22 Red Bull Salzburg games / 22 Rapid Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 60% | Draw 22% | Rapid Vienna 18%. Fair-value odds: Red Bull Salzburg 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Rapid Vienna 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Red Bull Salzburg (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Red Bull Salzburg at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Red Bull Salzburg 40% | Rapid Vienna 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 3 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Apr 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 60% | Draw 22% | Rapid Vienna 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 54% | xG Red Bull Salzburg 1.96 / Rapid Vienna 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.463 / def 0.828 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.961 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.151 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Rapid Vienna xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 3 April 2022 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna?
Red Bull Salzburg 2 - 1 Rapid Vienna.
Where is Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna part of?
Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna is a Championship Round - 3 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Red Bull Salzburg a 60% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Red Bull Salzburg and Rapid Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and Rapid Vienna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and Rapid Vienna in?
Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Rapid Vienna (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Red Bull Salzburg's attack rating (1.46) and Rapid Vienna's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.96 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rapid Vienna's attack (0.96x) against Red Bull Salzburg's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
60%
1.67
22%
4.64
18%
5.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Total xG
2.94
0.98
Rapid Vienna xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
5.43
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
14%
7.08
Win to Nil
22%
4.46
3%
38.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.2 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Red Bull Salzburg and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 0.98 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Red Bull Salzburg's recent record stands at 19W 4D 1L from 24 games, a 2.54 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Red Bull Salzburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rapid Vienna, meanwhile, have gone 9W 8D 7L across 24 games — 1.46 PPG, with D-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Red Bull Salzburg by 1.08 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rapid Vienna heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Red Bull Salzburg have managed 11W 1D 0L from 12 games — 2.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rapid Vienna's away record stands at 3W 6D 3L across 12 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Red Bull Salzburg are averaging 2.29 goals scored and 0.58 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.62 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rapid Vienna in 67%.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
Rapid Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
Red Bull Salzburg have gone 19W 4D 1L in their last 24 games (2.54 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 9W 8D 7L in their last 24 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Red Bull Salzburg at home or Rapid Vienna away?
Red Bull Salzburg's home record (2.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Red Bull Salzburg at home: 2.83 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Red Bull Salzburg or Rapid Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Rapid Vienna in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Rapid Vienna have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Red Bull Salzburg have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rapid Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Red Bull Salzburg
2
Draws
5
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and Rapid Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Red Bull Salzburg have won 3, Rapid Vienna have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Red Bull Salzburg and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Rapid Vienna 1-0 Red Bull Salzburg.
Who has won more matches between Red Bull Salzburg and Rapid Vienna?
Rapid Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Red Bull Salzburg see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Red Bull Salzburg 42%, Rapid Vienna 83% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Red Bull Salzburg) and 50% (Rapid Vienna).
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Red Bull Salzburg home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Red Bull Salzburg play Rapid Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of Red Bull Salzburg's games and 83% of Rapid Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Red Bull Salzburg's recent games and 50% of Rapid Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Red Bull Salzburg and Rapid Vienna tend to score early?
Red Bull Salzburg have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Rapid Vienna in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Red Bull Salzburg edge out Rapid Vienna 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg beat Rapid Vienna 2-1 at Red Bull Arena, Championship Round - 3, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Red Bull Salzburg 1.96 xG and Rapid Vienna 0.98 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.46 / defence 0.83 against Rapid Vienna attack 0.96 / defence 1.16, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Red Bull Salzburg 60% | Draw 22% | Rapid Vienna 18%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Red Bull Salzburg 54%, Rapid Vienna 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 2.54 PPG against 1.46. That form edge translated into the three points. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.