Rapid Vienna 4-1 WSG Wattens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Rapid Vienna (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Rapid Vienna face WSG Wattens.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees WSG Wattens travel to Allianz Stadion to take on Rapid Vienna. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 September 2025, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rapid Vienna stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Rapid Vienna have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rapid Vienna's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Allianz Stadion this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
WSG Wattens — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. WSG Wattens have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
WSG Wattens's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Rapid Vienna are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Rapid Vienna: 6 wins from 8 previous clashes against 0 for WSG Wattens, with 2 draws across those contests.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The historical record gives Rapid Vienna a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Rapid Vienna trading profile (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
WSG Wattens trading profile (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rapid Vienna 56% versus WSG Wattens 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rapid Vienna 56% | WSG Wattens 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 1.23 xG and WSG Wattens 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 0.898 / defence 0.758 | WSG Wattens attack 0.935 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.388 / away 1.284. Rapid Vienna's defence rating of 0.758 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 27 Rapid Vienna games / 26 WSG Wattens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 44% | Draw 29% | WSG Wattens 27%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | WSG Wattens 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rapid Vienna at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rapid Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Rapid Vienna 10% | WSG Wattens 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rapid Vienna vs WSG Wattens | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Allianz Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Sep 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 44% | Draw 29% | WSG Wattens 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Rapid Vienna 1.23 / WSG Wattens 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Rapid Vienna attack 0.898 / def 0.758 | WSG Wattens attack 0.935 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.388 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Rapid Vienna xG
Expected Goals
0.91
WSG Wattens xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rapid Vienna vs WSG Wattens kick off?
Rapid Vienna vs WSG Wattens kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 14 September 2025 at Allianz Stadion.
What was the final score in Rapid Vienna vs WSG Wattens?
Rapid Vienna 4 - 1 WSG Wattens.
Where is Rapid Vienna vs WSG Wattens being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadion.
What competition is Rapid Vienna vs WSG Wattens part of?
Rapid Vienna vs WSG Wattens is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Rapid Vienna vs WSG Wattens?
Our statistical model gives Rapid Vienna a 44% chance of winning, WSG Wattens a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rapid Vienna vs WSG Wattens?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Rapid Vienna and WSG Wattens will score (BTTS).
Will Rapid Vienna vs WSG Wattens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and WSG Wattens?
Record (8 meetings): Rapid Vienna 6W | Draws 2 | WSG Wattens 0W.
What form are Rapid Vienna and WSG Wattens in?
Rapid Vienna (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. WSG Wattens (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Rapid Vienna's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against WSG Wattens's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, WSG Wattens's attack versus Rapid Vienna's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
44%
2.29
29%
3.44
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Rapid Vienna xG
Total xG
2.14
0.91
WSG Wattens xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
18%
5.70
8%
12.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 10.7 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.2 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rapid Vienna vs WSG Wattens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Rapid Vienna and WSG Wattens expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Rapid Vienna and 0.91 for WSG Wattens, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Rapid Vienna vs WSG Wattens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rapid Vienna's recent record stands at 15W 8D 13L from 36 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
WSG Wattens, meanwhile, have gone 9W 11D 16L across 36 games — 1.06 PPG, with D-W-W-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for WSG Wattens, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rapid Vienna by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over WSG Wattens heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rapid Vienna have managed 10W 3D 4L from 17 games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Rapid Vienna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
WSG Wattens's away record stands at 4W 3D 10L across 17 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rapid Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rapid Vienna are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; WSG Wattens are on 1.22 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rapid Vienna
Early Season
WSG Wattens
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rapid Vienna and WSG Wattens in coming into this match?
Rapid Vienna have gone 15W 8D 13L in their last 36 games (1.47 PPG), while WSG Wattens have gone 9W 11D 16L in their last 36 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rapid Vienna at home or WSG Wattens away?
Rapid Vienna's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rapid Vienna at home: 1.94 PPG; WSG Wattens away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Rapid Vienna or WSG Wattens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rapid Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, WSG Wattens in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rapid Vienna and WSG Wattens runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2022, when Rapid Vienna won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rapid Vienna's record when hosting WSG Wattens specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Rapid Vienna
3
Draws
0
WSG Wattens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and WSG Wattens?
From 10 meetings on record, Rapid Vienna have won 7, WSG Wattens have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rapid Vienna and WSG Wattens last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when WSG Wattens 1-1 Rapid Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Rapid Vienna and WSG Wattens?
Rapid Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rapid Vienna 35%, WSG Wattens 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Rapid Vienna) and 65% (WSG Wattens). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rapid Vienna keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Rapid Vienna have failed to score in 29% of games; WSG Wattens in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rapid Vienna home games / WSG Wattens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rapid Vienna play WSG Wattens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Rapid Vienna's recent matches and 59% of WSG Wattens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rapid Vienna vs WSG Wattens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Rapid Vienna's matches and 65% of WSG Wattens's.
Do Rapid Vienna and WSG Wattens tend to score early?
Rapid Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, WSG Wattens in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rapid Vienna run riot with a 4-1 hammering of WSG Wattens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rapid Vienna beat WSG Wattens 4-1 at Allianz Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.23 xG and WSG Wattens 0.91 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Rapid Vienna beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 0.90 / defence 0.76 against WSG Wattens attack 0.94 / defence 0.99, drawn from 27/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 44% | Draw 29% | WSG Wattens 27%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 56%, WSG Wattens 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
WSG Wattens's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rapid Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 1.06. That form edge translated into the three points. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.