Rapid Vienna 1-1 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rapid Vienna at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Austria Vienna make the trip to Allianz Stadion to face Rapid Vienna in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 2. The match kicks off on Sunday 20 March 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Rapid Vienna's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rapid Vienna's home record at Allianz Stadion: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Austria Vienna (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Vienna's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Rapid Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
Austria Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rapid Vienna 65% and Austria Vienna 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rapid Vienna 61% | Austria Vienna 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 1.38 xG and Austria Vienna 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 1.169 / defence 1.109 | Austria Vienna attack 0.924 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.152 / away 1.236. Data: 22 Rapid Vienna games / 22 Austria Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 40% | Draw 26% | Austria Vienna 34%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Austria Vienna 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rapid Vienna are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rapid Vienna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Rapid Vienna 50% | Austria Vienna 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 2 | Venue: Allianz Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Mar 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 40% | Draw 26% | Austria Vienna 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Rapid Vienna 1.38 / Austria Vienna 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Rapid Vienna attack 1.169 / def 1.109 | Austria Vienna attack 0.924 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.152 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Rapid Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Austria Vienna xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna kick off?
Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 20 March 2022 at Allianz Stadion.
What was the final score in Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna?
Rapid Vienna 1 - 1 Austria Vienna.
Where is Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadion.
What competition is Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna part of?
Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna is a Championship Round - 2 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Rapid Vienna a 40% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna in?
Rapid Vienna (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Austria Vienna (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rapid Vienna's attack at 1.17x the league average against Austria Vienna's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Austria Vienna's attack (0.92x) against Rapid Vienna's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
40%
2.53
26%
3.83
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Rapid Vienna xG
Total xG
2.64
1.27
Austria Vienna xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
11%
8.98
9%
11.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.4 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Rapid Vienna and 1.27 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rapid Vienna come into this having played 23 games, going 9W 7D 7L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-W. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Austria Vienna sit at 1.57 PPG from 23 outings (9W 9D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Rapid Vienna against 1.57 for Austria Vienna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Rapid Vienna's home form reads 6W 1D 4L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.73 PPG return.
Away from home, Austria Vienna have taken 1.45 points per game from 11 outings (4W 4D 3L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rapid Vienna are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.43 scored and 1.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rapid Vienna have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Austria Vienna in 61%.
Last 23 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rapid Vienna
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
Rapid Vienna have gone 9W 7D 7L in their last 23 games (1.48 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 9W 9D 5L in their last 23 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rapid Vienna at home or Austria Vienna away?
Rapid Vienna's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rapid Vienna at home: 1.73 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rapid Vienna won 3-0 on 25 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rapid Vienna have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Austria Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Rapid Vienna
2
Draws
4
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Rapid Vienna have won 4, Austria Vienna have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Rapid Vienna 0-2 Austria Vienna.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Austria Vienna see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rapid Vienna 46%, Austria Vienna 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Rapid Vienna) and 36% (Austria Vienna).
On the defensive side: Rapid Vienna keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Austria Vienna in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rapid Vienna home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rapid Vienna play Austria Vienna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Rapid Vienna's recent matches and 54% of Austria Vienna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 73% of Rapid Vienna's recent games and 36% of Austria Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
Rapid Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Allianz Stadion, Championship Round - 2, as Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.38 xG and Austria Vienna 1.27 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 1.17 / defence 1.11 against Austria Vienna attack 0.92 / defence 1.02, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 40% | Draw 26% | Austria Vienna 34%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 61%, Austria Vienna 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rapid Vienna 1.48 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.