Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lask Linz (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lask Linz face TSV Hartberg.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg meet at Raiffeisen Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 November 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lask Linz's overall Bundesliga record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lask Linz's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Raiffeisen Arena this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
TSV Hartberg (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D D W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Lask Linz's favour (2.20 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Across 10 previous meetings, Lask Linz are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 6 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2026, ended 3–3 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Lask Linz and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Lask Linz — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
TSV Hartberg — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lask Linz 56% versus TSV Hartberg 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 63% | TSV Hartberg 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.76 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 1.052 / defence 0.925 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.040 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.806 / away 1.304. Data: 31 Lask Linz games / 31 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 47% | Draw 29% | TSV Hartberg 24%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | TSV Hartberg 4.17. Lask Linz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lask Linz at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lask Linz if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Lask Linz 60% | TSV Hartberg 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 47% | Draw 29% | TSV Hartberg 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Lask Linz 1.76 / TSV Hartberg 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 1.052 / def 0.925 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.040 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.806 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.25
TSV Hartberg xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Raiffeisen Arena.
Where is Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 47% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg?
Record (10 meetings): Lask Linz 4W | Draws 6 | TSV Hartberg 0W.
What form are Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg in?
Lask Linz (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lask Linz's attack at 1.05x the league average against TSV Hartberg's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — TSV Hartberg's attack (1.04x) against Lask Linz's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
47%
2.15
29%
3.45
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
3.02
1.25
TSV Hartberg xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
17%
5.82
Win to Nil
13%
7.53
4%
23.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.8 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.25 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lask Linz come into this having played 41 games, going 23W 8D 10L for 1.88 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-W. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, TSV Hartberg sit at 1.29 PPG from 41 outings (13W 14D 14L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lask Linz carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Lask Linz's home form reads 13W 3D 4L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.10 PPG return.
Away from home, TSV Hartberg have taken 1.45 points per game from 20 outings (7W 8D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lask Linz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lask Linz are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.34 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 23W 8D 10L in their last 41 games (1.88 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 13W 14D 14L in their last 41 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Lask Linz's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 2.10 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Lask Linz or TSV Hartberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lask Linz have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, TSV Hartberg in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lask Linz won 1-5 on 26 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lask Linz have gone 1W 4D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Lask Linz
6
Draws
0
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Lask Linz have won 4, TSV Hartberg have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when TSV Hartberg 3-3 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 50%, TSV Hartberg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Lask Linz) and 45% (TSV Hartberg).
On the defensive side: Lask Linz keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; TSV Hartberg in 35%; TSV Hartberg in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lask Linz play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 50% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Lask Linz's recent games and 45% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Lask Linz have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.