Lask Linz 0-2 Ried – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lask Linz at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lask Linz vs Ried fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Raiffeisen Arena plays host to Lask Linz versus Ried in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 2 April 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lask Linz have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lask Linz's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Raiffeisen Arena this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Ried's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ried, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ried's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Lask Linz, 1.20 for Ried — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Lask Linz lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2021, ended 1–0 with Lask Linz winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Lask Linz — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Ried — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lask Linz 50% and Ried 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 46% | Ried 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.31 xG and Ried 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 0.845 / defence 1.045 | Ried attack 0.768 / defence 1.347. League average goals — home 1.151 / away 1.237. Ried bring a strong defensive rating of 1.347 — this is suppressing Lask Linz's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Lask Linz games / 22 Ried games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 44% | Draw 28% | Ried 28%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Ried 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lask Linz are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lask Linz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Lask Linz 30% | Ried 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs Ried | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 44% | Draw 28% | Ried 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Lask Linz 1.31 / Ried 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 0.845 / def 1.045 | Ried attack 0.768 / def 1.347 | league avg home 1.151 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Ried xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lask Linz vs Ried kick off?
Lask Linz vs Ried kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs Ried?
Lask Linz 0 - 2 Ried.
Where is Lask Linz vs Ried being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs Ried part of?
Lask Linz vs Ried is a Relegation Round - 3 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs Ried?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 44% chance of winning, Ried a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs Ried?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Lask Linz and Ried will score (BTTS).
Will Lask Linz vs Ried have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Ried?
Record (2 meetings): Lask Linz 1W | Draws 0 | Ried 1W.
What form are Lask Linz and Ried in?
Lask Linz (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Ried (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lask Linz's attack at 0.84x the league average against Ried's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ried's attack (0.77x) against Lask Linz's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
44%
2.28
28%
3.59
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
2.31
0.99
Ried xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
16%
6.15
8%
13.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.0 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs Ried?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and Ried expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Lask Linz and 0.99 for Ried, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs Ried?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lask Linz's recent record stands at 7W 8D 9L from 24 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ried, meanwhile, have gone 7W 8D 9L across 24 games — 1.21 PPG, with W-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Ried is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Lask Linz against 1.21 for Ried. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Lask Linz have managed 4W 4D 4L from 12 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ried's away record stands at 1W 3D 8L across 12 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ried's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lask Linz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lask Linz are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Ried are on 1.33 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ried in 75%.
Last 24 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Blended
Ried
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lask Linz and Ried in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 7W 8D 9L in their last 24 games (1.21 PPG), while Ried have gone 7W 8D 9L in their last 24 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or Ried away?
Lask Linz's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 1.33 PPG; Ried away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lask Linz have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ried — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Lask Linz
4
Draws
3
Ried
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Ried?
From 8 meetings on record, Lask Linz have won 1, Ried have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and Ried last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Ried 1-1 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and Ried?
Ried have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lask Linz see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 42%, Ried 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Lask Linz) and 50% (Ried).
On the defensive side: Lask Linz keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Lask Linz have failed to score in 33% of games; Ried in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / Ried away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lask Linz play Ried?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 67% of Ried's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lask Linz vs Ried usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Lask Linz's recent games and 50% of Ried's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lask Linz and Ried tend to score early?
Lask Linz have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Ried in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ried cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lask Linz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ried beat Lask Linz 0-2 at Raiffeisen Arena, Relegation Round - 3, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.31 xG and Ried 0.99 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Lask Linz fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Ried outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 0.84 / defence 1.04 against Ried attack 0.77 / defence 1.35, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 44% | Draw 28% | Ried 28%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Ried win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 46%, Ried 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ried's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lask Linz 1.21 PPG, Ried 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ried win broke the near-deadlock. Lask Linz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ried (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.