Lask Linz 2-2 Austria Klagenfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Klagenfurt at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lask Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Austria Klagenfurt travel to Raiffeisen Arena to take on Lask Linz. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 February 2022, 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lask Linz — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Raiffeisen Arena, Lask Linz have gone 3W 2D 4L this season (9 games, 1.22 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Austria Klagenfurt stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Austria Klagenfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Klagenfurt's away record: 3W 2D 4L from 9 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.22 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lask Linz 1.30 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Lask Linz trading profile (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Austria Klagenfurt trading profile (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lask Linz 61% and Austria Klagenfurt 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 44% | Austria Klagenfurt 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.05 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 0.851 / defence 1.026 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.863 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.175 / away 1.368. Data: 18 Lask Linz games / 18 Austria Klagenfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 31% | Draw 31% | Austria Klagenfurt 39%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Austria Klagenfurt 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Austria Klagenfurt are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Klagenfurt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Lask Linz 44% | Austria Klagenfurt 56%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Feb 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 31% | Draw 31% | Austria Klagenfurt 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Lask Linz 1.05 / Austria Klagenfurt 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 0.851 / def 1.026 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.863 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.175 / away 1.368 • Poisson stance: Austria Klagenfurt (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Austria Klagenfurt xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lask Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt kick off?
Lask Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 13 February 2022 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Lask Linz 2 - 2 Austria Klagenfurt.
Where is Lask Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt part of?
Lask Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 31% chance of winning, Austria Klagenfurt a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Austria Klagenfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Lask Linz and Austria Klagenfurt will score (BTTS).
Will Lask Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Austria Klagenfurt?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lask Linz and Austria Klagenfurt in?
Lask Linz (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Austria Klagenfurt (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lask Linz's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Austria Klagenfurt's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Klagenfurt's attack versus Lask Linz's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Klagenfurt Win
31%
3.25
31%
3.27
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
2.27
1.21
Austria Klagenfurt xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
9%
10.91
13%
7.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 12.6 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and Austria Klagenfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.21 for Austria Klagenfurt, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 18 outings, Lask Linz have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 5W 5D 8L record — W-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Austria Klagenfurt's form line: 6W 7D 5L from 18 games, 1.39 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-L. The sample for Austria Klagenfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lask Linz on 1.11 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lask Linz have posted 1.22 PPG from 9 outings (3W 2D 4L).
On the road, Austria Klagenfurt have gone 3W 2D 4L from 9 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Lask Linz are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Austria Klagenfurt are on 1.44 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lask Linz have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Austria Klagenfurt in 67%.
Last 18 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Blended
Austria Klagenfurt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lask Linz and Austria Klagenfurt in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 5W 5D 8L in their last 18 games (1.11 PPG), while Austria Klagenfurt have gone 6W 7D 5L in their last 18 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or Austria Klagenfurt away?
Lask Linz's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 1.22 PPG; Austria Klagenfurt away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Lask Linz have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Apr 2025, when Lask Linz won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lask Linz's record when hosting Austria Klagenfurt specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Lask Linz
2
Draws
0
Austria Klagenfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Austria Klagenfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, Lask Linz have won 8, Austria Klagenfurt have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and Austria Klagenfurt last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when Lask Linz 6-0 Austria Klagenfurt.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and Austria Klagenfurt?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lask Linz see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 44%, Austria Klagenfurt 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Lask Linz) and 56% (Austria Klagenfurt).
On the defensive side: Austria Klagenfurt in 33%; Lask Linz have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / Austria Klagenfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lask Linz play Austria Klagenfurt?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 56% of Austria Klagenfurt's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lask Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Lask Linz's recent games and 56% of Austria Klagenfurt's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lask Linz and Austria Klagenfurt tend to score early?
Lask Linz have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Austria Klagenfurt in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lask Linz and Austria Klagenfurt share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz and Austria Klagenfurt finished level at 2-2 at Raiffeisen Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.05 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 1.21 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Lask Linz beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 0.85 / defence 1.03 against Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.86 / defence 1.05, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 31% | Draw 31% | Austria Klagenfurt 39%, with Austria Klagenfurt to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 44%, Austria Klagenfurt 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lask Linz 1.11 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lask Linz (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.