Grazer AK 0-0 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates TSV Hartberg at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg meet at Merkur-Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 October 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Grazer AK's overall Bundesliga record this term: 0W 6D 4L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Grazer AK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grazer AK's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Merkur-Arena this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Grazer AK are significantly better at Merkur-Arena than their overall form suggests.
TSV Hartberg have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, TSV Hartberg have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. TSV Hartberg are 0.50 PPG clear of Grazer AK in recent Bundesliga fixtures (1.10 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Grazer AK lead 0W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Grazer AK — key trading statistics (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
TSV Hartberg — key trading statistics (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grazer AK 61% versus TSV Hartberg 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grazer AK 54% | TSV Hartberg 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grazer AK 1.30 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grazer AK attack 0.898 / defence 1.220 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.196 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.260. Data: 31 Grazer AK games / 31 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grazer AK 27% | Draw 23% | TSV Hartberg 50%. Fair-value odds: Grazer AK 3.70 | Draw 4.35 | TSV Hartberg 2.00. TSV Hartberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 1.84) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.8 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 61% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
On the Poisson output, TSV Hartberg are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Grazer AK 50% | TSV Hartberg 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Merkur-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Oct 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grazer AK 27% | Draw 23% | TSV Hartberg 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 61% | xG Grazer AK 1.30 / TSV Hartberg 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Grazer AK attack 0.898 / def 1.220 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.196 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Grazer AK xG
Expected Goals
1.84
TSV Hartberg xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 18 October 2025 at Merkur-Arena.
What was the final score in Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg?
Grazer AK 0 - 0 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Merkur-Arena.
What competition is Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Grazer AK a 27% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 50% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg?
Record (4 meetings): Grazer AK 0W | Draws 2 | TSV Hartberg 2W.
What form are Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg in?
Grazer AK (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Grazer AK's attack at 0.90x the league average against TSV Hartberg's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — TSV Hartberg's attack (1.20x) against Grazer AK's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.84.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
27%
3.68
23%
4.39
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Grazer AK xG
Total xG
3.14
1.84
TSV Hartberg xG
3.68
27%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
16%
6.28
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
4%
23.15
14%
7.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.4 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Grazer AK and 1.84 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 41 outings, Grazer AK have picked up 0.80 PPG on a 5W 18D 18L record — L-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Grazer AK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
TSV Hartberg's form line: 14W 13D 14L from 41 games, 1.34 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-D. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, TSV Hartberg are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Grazer AK.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Grazer AK have posted 0.86 PPG from 21 outings (3W 9D 9L).
On the road, TSV Hartberg have gone 8W 6D 7L from 21 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, TSV Hartberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Grazer AK are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.29 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grazer AK have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grazer AK
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Grazer AK have gone 5W 18D 18L in their last 41 games (0.80 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 14W 13D 14L in their last 41 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grazer AK at home or TSV Hartberg away?
TSV Hartberg's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grazer AK at home: 0.86 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: TSV Hartberg won 0-3 on 8 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Grazer AK have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Grazer AK
3
Draws
3
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg?
From 6 meetings on record, Grazer AK have won 0, TSV Hartberg have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when TSV Hartberg 1-0 Grazer AK.
Who has won more matches between Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Grazer AK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grazer AK 62%, TSV Hartberg 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Grazer AK) and 48% (TSV Hartberg).
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg in 38%; Grazer AK have failed to score in 29% of games; TSV Hartberg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grazer AK home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grazer AK play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Grazer AK's recent matches and 43% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Grazer AK's recent games and 48% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Grazer AK have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Grazer AK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg finished level at 0-0 at Merkur-Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grazer AK 1.30 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.84 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Grazer AK fell 1.3 short of their projected output. TSV Hartberg landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grazer AK attack 0.90 / defence 1.22 against TSV Hartberg attack 1.20 / defence 1.08, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grazer AK 27% | Draw 23% | TSV Hartberg 50%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grazer AK 54%, TSV Hartberg 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grazer AK's trading profile (41 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (41 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, TSV Hartberg arrived the stronger side — 1.34 PPG against 0.80. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Grazer AK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.