Grazer AK 1-1 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis

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Poisson rates SCR Altach at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Grazer AK vs SCR Altach encounter.

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Full Analysis

Merkur Arena plays host to Grazer AK versus SCR Altach in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Sunday 15 September 2024 at 13:30 UTC.

Form

Grazer AK (all games): 0W 3D 2L across 5 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Grazer AK have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

SCR Altach have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. SCR Altach have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

On the road, SCR Altach have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. SCR Altach are 0.60 PPG clear of Grazer AK in recent Bundesliga fixtures (1.20 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Grazer AK have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, SCR Altach in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Trading Data

Grazer AK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%.

SCR Altach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Grazer AK 80% and SCR Altach 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grazer AK 60% | SCR Altach 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Grazer AK 1.46 xG and SCR Altach 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grazer AK attack 0.904 / defence 1.364 | SCR Altach attack 1.007 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.666 / away 1.168. Data: 5 Grazer AK games / 27 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Grazer AK 33% | Draw 27% | SCR Altach 40%. Fair-value odds: Grazer AK 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | SCR Altach 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, SCR Altach are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SCR Altach if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Grazer AK 80% | SCR Altach 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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