Grazer AK 2-1 Ried – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Grazer AK at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Grazer AK vs Ried fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Merkur-Arena plays host to Grazer AK versus Ried in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Sunday 1 March 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Grazer AK have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Grazer AK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Grazer AK have posted 2W 5D 3L at Merkur-Arena — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ried (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ried, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Ried have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Grazer AK, 1.40 for Ried — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Grazer AK have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Ried in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Grazer AK, 0 for Ried and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Grazer AK half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Ried half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grazer AK 65% versus Ried 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grazer AK 60% | Ried 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grazer AK 1.52 xG and Ried 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grazer AK attack 1.028 / defence 1.035 | Ried attack 0.857 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.169. Data: 42 Grazer AK games / 20 Ried games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grazer AK 49% | Draw 26% | Ried 26%. Fair-value odds: Grazer AK 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Ried 3.85. Grazer AK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Grazer AK are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Grazer AK if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Grazer AK 80% | Ried 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grazer AK vs Ried | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Merkur-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Mar 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grazer AK 49% | Draw 26% | Ried 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Grazer AK 1.52 / Ried 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Grazer AK attack 1.028 / def 1.035 | Ried attack 0.857 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.317 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Grazer AK (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Grazer AK xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Ried xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grazer AK vs Ried kick off?
Grazer AK vs Ried kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 1 March 2026 at Merkur-Arena.
What was the final score in Grazer AK vs Ried?
Grazer AK 2 - 1 Ried.
Where is Grazer AK vs Ried being played?
The match is being played at Merkur-Arena.
What competition is Grazer AK vs Ried part of?
Grazer AK vs Ried is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Grazer AK vs Ried?
Our statistical model gives Grazer AK a 49% chance of winning, Ried a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Grazer AK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grazer AK vs Ried?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Grazer AK and Ried will score (BTTS).
Will Grazer AK vs Ried have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and Ried?
Record (1 meetings): Grazer AK 0W | Draws 1 | Ried 0W.
What form are Grazer AK and Ried in?
Grazer AK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Ried (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Grazer AK's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Ried's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. Flip it around — Ried's attack (0.86x) against Grazer AK's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 42/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grazer AK Win
49%
2.06
26%
3.89
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Grazer AK xG
Total xG
2.56
1.04
Ried xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
17%
5.81
6%
17.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.2 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grazer AK vs Ried?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Grazer AK and Ried expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Grazer AK and 1.04 for Ried, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Grazer AK vs Ried?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 20 outings, Grazer AK have picked up 0.85 PPG on a 3W 8D 9L record — L-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Grazer AK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ried's form line: 8W 4D 8L from 20 games, 1.40 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-D. The sample for Ried is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Ried are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Grazer AK.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Grazer AK have posted 1.10 PPG from 10 outings (2W 5D 3L).
On the road, Ried have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Grazer AK are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Ried are on 1.25 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grazer AK have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 20 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grazer AK
Blended
Ried
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grazer AK and Ried in coming into this match?
Grazer AK have gone 3W 8D 9L in their last 20 games (0.85 PPG), while Ried have gone 8W 4D 8L in their last 20 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grazer AK at home or Ried away?
Ried's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grazer AK at home: 1.10 PPG; Ried away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Ried go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Grazer AK have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ried — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Grazer AK
2
Draws
2
Ried
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and Ried?
From 5 meetings on record, Grazer AK have won 1, Ried have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Grazer AK and Ried last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Ried 1-0 Grazer AK.
Who has won more matches between Grazer AK and Ried?
Ried have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Grazer AK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Grazer AK, 60% for Ried — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Grazer AK) and 50% (Ried). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ried in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grazer AK home games / Ried away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grazer AK play Ried?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Grazer AK's games and 60% of Ried's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Grazer AK vs Ried usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Grazer AK's matches and 50% of Ried's.
Do Grazer AK and Ried tend to score early?
Grazer AK have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Ried in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Grazer AK edge out Ried 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grazer AK beat Ried 2-1 at Merkur-Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grazer AK 1.52 xG and Ried 1.04 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grazer AK attack 1.03 / defence 1.03 against Ried attack 0.86 / defence 1.13, drawn from 42/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grazer AK 49% | Draw 26% | Ried 26%, with Grazer AK to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grazer AK 60%, Ried 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grazer AK's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Ried's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ried arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.85. Form was overturned, with Grazer AK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.